WEBVTT

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Okay, welcome to this course on Smart Energy Distribution.

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I have to say a few things initially.

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The first thing is that it is rather late in the term that I start

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this course.

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The reason was that there just were a few events that prevented me

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from starting it earlier.

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So the first week I had to present an essential part of Karlsruhe at a

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presentation of the Technologie Region Karlsruhe at Brussels.

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That was the first week.

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The second week I had to teach a course at the Hector School.

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Three days full-time lecturing, different from what we do at KRT.

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And now I'm finally here.

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And since the Thursday in the summer term has the problem that there

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are several holidays on Thursdays, and in addition to that there are a

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few more days on Thursdays where I have other things to do, I noticed

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that there are just six Thursdays in this term where I can teach the

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course.

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And so I decided just to put on every Thursday afternoon four hours or

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three time hours, so two times one and a half hours on one afternoon.

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And so in this way we have the course almost every other week.

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And I'm finally ready to start.

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In a room where I teach the first time.

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So this is a room that so far was used by the Faculty of Mathematics,

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which now moved out of this building and this will be one of our

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standard seminar rooms from now on.

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So I think it's a nice room and we will have to start.

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So, just a few words about who is connected with this course.

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It's my name here, so for those who will actually not be here or will

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not be present in the lecture, but only look at the recorded lectures,

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that's my face there, or my picture.

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What's this?

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Something is not correct here.

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This is strange.

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I don't know what's happening there.

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So, this is my picture.

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Office hours, Tuesdays.

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And then there is my assistant, Sebastian Kochanek, who has not that

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much to do here in this course, because I'm not offering tutorials,

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but he will organize things that are connected to this, like manage

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the recorded lectures and things like that.

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So, the course will be presented definitely as live lectures.

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For you in the room here, this is obvious.

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The lecture is recorded, as I'm doing it always.

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All my lectures are recorded, so slides, annotations, sound using

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Camtasia.

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Everything is available as AVI documents.

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You have on the website of DIVA, Digital Video Audio Archive, you have

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a streaming version and can also download.

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So, if you are happy with looking at a streaming video, you can

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definitely use that from DIVA.

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But I think, to really use a recorded lecture, you should use some

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player, which will allow you to modify the way you actually access the

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course.

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Either jump at a specific place, where you would like to listen to

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again, after you have seen the course in the live lecture.

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Or, you might want to just speed it up a little bit, in order to spend

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less time on listening, because some things can be speeded up

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slightly.

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And so, for that, the VLC is a perfect player, because that's offering

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exactly that.

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The other thing is, that this Camtasia player, there's a link on

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webpage, that's provided free of charge by TechSmith.

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An important part is, that you have visible scrolling.

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Those who have heard courses with me, know all about that.

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What is really puzzling, I can, for some reason, I cannot access the

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pen.

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I don't know why.

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I have no idea, why I cannot access the pen.

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So, maybe I should briefly restart the recording.

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No, not restart the recording, but restart the lecturing tool.

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So, I end that.

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Ah, there's the reason.

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You see, that was still protected there.

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So, now it will be possible, if I go back to the slides, now I will be

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able to select the pen.

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Yes, that was it.

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So, this was just with respect to the recording.

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Then, time and location, Thursdays.

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Every other week, about every other week, the correct dates are given

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here.

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From 2 to 17, or from 14 to 17.15, in this room here.

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So, these will be the dates, where the course is offered.

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And, there will be no tutorials.

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Maybe, that at some time, they will be added.

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But, so far, we will only have the lectures every other week.

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And so, you only have 4 credit points for this, and not the 5 credit

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points, that we usually have for a course, that has 2 lecture hours,

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plus 1 hour tutorials.

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I briefly, or have here, a few slides on the Nukid cooperation tools.

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Who of you has never seen these tools for asking questions?

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Like, let me show you this here, who has never used such a tool in a

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course?

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Some of you have not, maybe you are from the ENTEC study program, a

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program of study.

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So, this is essentially for those classes, where we have a very large

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number of students.

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So, this is for the students, giving feedback to me, while I'm

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lecturing.

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I can also ask you questions, but I can, like in a small group like

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this, I can ask the questions directly, and you can put up your hand,

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or say something directly.

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So, we are not that much relying on tools for that.

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So, if somebody of you would like to have that, I can put it on, I can

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start it, and you can give electronic feedback.

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But, if you don't, it's fine with me.

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Although, I'm always pleased to use that, because it's the development

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from my group.

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Again, let me briefly introduce myself, like what kind of person is

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teaching something to you here.

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So, who am I?

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I'm the Chair of Applied Informatics at the Institute AIFB.

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That's the university mission of KIT.

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I used to be also, for some time, the Director at the Institute of

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Applied Informatics.

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The chair there has now been filled, so I have gone back from that

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extra duty, but I'm still affiliated with that institute.

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So, that is the Helmholtz mission of KIT.

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And I'm one of the 22 Directors at the Research Center for Information

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Technology, FZE, Forschungszentrum Informatik, which is the innovation

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mission of KIT.

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So, I'm active in all these three areas, or these three missions of

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KIT.

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My research areas are, essentially, the core research competence is

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efficient algorithms, and then many different topics.

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Bio-inspired optimization, in particular, genetic algorithms, encoding

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optimization, particle-formed optimization, and so on.

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Organic computing, having to do with self-organizing systems, which

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are essential for very distributed, intelligent devices.

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And an example of such a scenario, where we have all kinds of systems

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which may be active, is the energy system.

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And that is my topic, or has been my topic, for quite some time now.

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It emerged as my major topic in recent years, but I started working on

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topics related to that about 10 years ago, with one of the projects we

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had here.

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And so now we are building up something which is called Energy

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Informatics.

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And this arose from a range of projects, where the first one,

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actually, I did not list here.

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The first one was the project ZESAM, Sesame, on self-organization and

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spontaneity in liberalized and harmonized markets.

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And then we came to projects like Miragio, Miragio Mobile, iZoys,

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Chrome, which I will probably give a little bit more information just

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a little bit later on.

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And then I'm active in the Energy Alliance, Technology for Future

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Energy Grids.

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That's a research alliance in the Helmholtz mission of KIT.

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There's a portfolio project also in the Helmholtz area, which is

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called a large-scale data management and analysis project, where I'm

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responsible for the Data Life Cycle Lab Energy.

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And we have at Karlsruhe a very important, it's not really a project,

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it's a competence center, one of the three national competence centers

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on IT security.

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And at Karlsruhe it's called the Competence Center for Applied

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Security Technologies, where I'm active in the energy-related security

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aspects.

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Starting this year, we are active in the Helmholtz Program Storage and

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Cross -Link Infrastructure.

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It's a program that has been formed in recent years in order to

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address or to have a program in the Helmholtz Association, which is

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directly addressing the challenges of the Energiewende.

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And so that's where we look at storage facilities, storage items.

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But as computer scientists, we look at how we can actually integrate

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different types of storage systems into the energy network, such that

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we actually can utilize these storage facilities for stabilizing the

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networks.

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And we have a lot of cooperation with industry, mainly over the FZI

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Research Center.

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Then I'm also active in the KIT Center Information Systems Technology.

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You know that we have several KIT centers.

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The research at KIT is structured in a systematic way into different

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topics.

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We have the KIT centers on energy, on climate, on mobility systems, on

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astrophysics, elementary particle physics, on man and machine

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technologies, or man and machine, essentially.

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What is it called again?

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It's humans and technology, essentially.

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And certainly we have this KIT Center Information Systems and

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Technology, which is actually a merger of the previous two KIT

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focuses, anthropomatics and robotics, and computation, where

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computation stands for communication plus computation.

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And I have been a spokesperson of that focus, and now I'm one of the

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preliminary spokespersons of that new center.

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And I wanted to briefly tell you what actually is computation about.

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And I do that because this is also closely related to the topics, to

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the technologies that we are addressing, that are needed actually for

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future energy systems.

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So computation is about the inherent combination of communication and

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computation, based on the insight that there are all these intelligent

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embedded systems that are around us, regardless where we look at.

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We just have to look at ourselves, and we have intelligent devices

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that we carry around.

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So there are numerous intelligent objects which are capable to

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communicate among each other, and also with humans.

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They are aware of their environment.

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They notice where they actually are, and they will adapt to what they

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see.

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They will adapt to dynamically changing requirements.

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And so this is a scenario that is interesting, because it will

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influence the way we can perceive our environment.

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Typical objects are indicated here, or sketched with these icons, or

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these images here.

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Computers, mobile phones, but not just these information processing,

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typical information processing or communication devices, but also

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cars, airplanes, appliances.

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You can add many, many different other devices here.

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And what we do in that focus is that we work on concepts,

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architectures, methods, tools, and selected applications of

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information processing, communication, organization, and services.

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And the objective is to provide trustworthy, robust, and efficient

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behavior of complex adaptive systems.

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So this is a very general statement on what we are interested in, but

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this is actually the background for my involvement in the energy area.

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And this is the background why I'm actually all of a sudden capable to

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teach something in the area of energy systems, where a few years ago I

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would have said, well, energy systems, that's not my area.

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But all of a sudden it became one of the most fascinating areas for my

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research.

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Just for completeness, this KIT Center on Information Systems and

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Technology now has 10 different topics.

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Although this is not that relevant for students, but I think you

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should know what your institution actually is representing to the

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outside world.

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And this is the way we structure the area of information systems

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technologies.

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So ranging from machine intelligence, where it's about learning

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systems, algorithms, cyber-physical systems, robotics and automation,

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then anthropomatics, so that's human-centered technologies, and

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biomedical engineering, certainly security and dependability,

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supercomputing and big data, communication technologies, teratronics,

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teratronics is about very high-frequency communication systems, web

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science, service engineering, and computer architecture.

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So this is not really ordered in a systematic discipline, or not

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ordered with respect to disciplines, but just some ordering which came

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up when we designed this new center.

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So you see the range of topics that we are looking at in large

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research projects at KIT on this broad area.

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You could say just the Center for Information, but if you only say

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Center for Information or Information Center, you would see, okay,

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that's the press and media department, but certainly that's not the

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press and media department, but it is on looking at information as an

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essential phenomenon that is really influencing almost every aspect of

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our lives, similar to energy or mobility, so it's on the same level.

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But if you would only say information, that's not really adequate, so

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we added systems technologies to make sure that this connection to

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using information in systems and in various technologies is what we

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are talking about.

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But this is not a lecture on this center, but on other things.

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Just to add a little bit more about my background, as I said, I wanted

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to tell you something about the major projects we have been looking

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at, and these are definitely relevant to what I will be talking about

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in this course.

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So it's... the first one is Meragio, moving towards minimum emission

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regions.

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This was one of the six model regions that we had in Germany in the

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energy program of the federal government.

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And so it's about combining energy technology, energy markets, and

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information communication technologies, such that we get more

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efficient and more flexible energy systems.

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And we are cooperating there under the lead of ENBW with industrial

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companies, large industrial companies, ABB, IBM, SAP, and a small

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consulting company, Systemplan.

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And at KIT we had five chairs from different disciplines, informatics,

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economics, management, law, telematics.

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It's an essential point that you cannot address these topics if you

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just do it from one discipline standpoint, but you have to cooperate

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with other disciplines in this area.

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And we had a pilot region with about 1,000 participants, which were

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confronted with new technologies.

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Okay, and then we added Meragio Mobile, which was about integrating

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the recharging needs of electric vehicles to get the energy for

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driving into the energy system.

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So we had to talk about how can we actually integrate these batteries

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into some kind of smart home environment.

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And again, we had large projects under the lead of ENBW, together

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with, again, large companies, in this case also with automotive

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companies like Daimler and Opel and also Bosch.

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And so here we worked on services, we had computer simulations, we had

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field trials with electric vehicles and a living lab.

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And we at KIT were 11 chairs, now also people from electrical

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engineering, which certainly had to be there because this was more on

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actually integrating components, which are just electrical equipment,

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batteries and so on.

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And for that you need people who are experts there.

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And we built there this center of competence at KIT, a demo and

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research lab, which evolved into one of the major assets that we have

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now at KIT, the Energy Smart Home Lab, which actually I will offer you

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to visit one time during the course that we go there and you can see

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what we have actually installed there, what kind of technologies.

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You will also see slides within one chapter on what we are doing

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there, but we will also have a chance to visit that house.

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Okay, further projects, EIZEUS, Intelligent Zero Emission Urban

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System, was the second part of the ICT for Electric Mobility federal

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funding program, where Meridian Mobile was the first project.

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Then we had another program on cross-border mobility with electric

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vehicles, where you could ask, well, what's the problem about driving

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across the border with an electric vehicle?

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The problem is that you might have, and really have, different

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technology on the German side and the French side, in particular with

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respect to the charging infrastructure, and so different plug

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requirements, different technologies at the charging stations, and so

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one of the objectives was to have interoperability of infrastructures

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for recharging the batteries of your vehicle.

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The other point is to look at how do people actually respond to such a

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new technology and to the services that we provide them to facilitate

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the way they can actually use electric vehicles.

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And so this was something which we looked at at KIT from a research

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point, and we had many industrial partners there on the German side,

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on the French side.

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And then we have several projects within the Spitzencluster, leading

20:23.970 --> 20:28.530
-edge cluster on electric mobility southwest, Road to Global Market,

20:28.670 --> 20:32.730
that's the name of that large initiative, a cluster driven by the

20:32.730 --> 20:38.310
industry, about 80 companies who are cooperating there, together with

20:38.310 --> 20:42.130
some research institutions, in particular with KIT and also FZI.

20:42.830 --> 20:50.390
And here the topics that we look at is the integrated view on electric

20:50.390 --> 20:56.070
mobility, namely that electric mobility can only be successful if we

20:56.070 --> 21:02.310
address vehicle technology, energy technology, and information and

21:02.310 --> 21:03.310
communication technology.

21:03.310 --> 21:08.570
These have to be integrated in order to have a successful way of

21:08.570 --> 21:14.290
dealing with that technology, making it really a good experience and

21:14.290 --> 21:16.230
really having something which can be accepted.

21:16.810 --> 21:20.950
Then there is the showcase or the living lab, electric mobility Baden

21:20.950 --> 21:25.750
-Württemberg, which also are integrated to some extent.

21:26.250 --> 21:30.470
And as I mentioned already, we have the Helmholtz Energy Alliance, the

21:30.470 --> 21:34.110
Helmholtz program, and there within the Helmholtz program, storage and

21:34.110 --> 21:37.250
cross -linked infrastructure, the networks and storage integration

21:37.250 --> 21:41.870
topic where we address how we can actually integrate successfully

21:41.870 --> 21:51.010
different types of storage into the networks or into the grid, such

21:51.010 --> 21:54.090
that we can have a stable operation there.

21:54.090 --> 21:59.810
And we have several projects in the House of Living Labs of the

21:59.810 --> 22:01.390
Research Center of Information Technologies.

22:01.890 --> 22:06.390
We will also offer you to visit that House of Living Labs.

22:06.510 --> 22:08.810
We can show you what kind of technologies we have there.

22:09.430 --> 22:13.470
Also, again, you will see also some slides about that later on in the

22:13.470 --> 22:13.730
course.

22:13.990 --> 22:15.450
So this is my background.

22:15.650 --> 22:19.130
You see that I have a project background in the area which is relevant

22:19.130 --> 22:23.890
to this course, namely smart energy distribution, but my real

22:23.890 --> 22:25.850
background is certainly computer science.

22:26.670 --> 22:30.190
And now we have to look at briefly what kind of course this will be.

22:30.350 --> 22:33.890
Here is just... this is copied from the description of the course.

22:33.990 --> 22:35.330
I don't want to read that to you.

22:35.390 --> 22:36.510
You might have read that already.

22:37.230 --> 22:41.330
The plan is to tell you something about these topics here.

22:41.470 --> 22:41.910
That's all.

22:43.190 --> 22:44.830
Motivation, the need for ICT.

22:45.050 --> 22:47.890
Why do we actually need information and communication technologies in

22:47.890 --> 22:48.590
the energy network?

22:48.590 --> 22:52.310
The traditional power engineer would say, why do you need any computer

22:52.310 --> 22:53.050
scientists here?

22:53.250 --> 22:56.390
There are power engineers who say, please make sure that no

22:56.390 --> 22:59.430
informatics people enter that field, because they will mess up

22:59.430 --> 22:59.850
everything.

23:00.730 --> 23:04.490
So we have to show that actually we can enter that field and provide

23:04.490 --> 23:11.470
relevant contributions, such that the challenges of all those

23:11.470 --> 23:15.550
transformations that are going on can be coped with.

23:16.290 --> 23:19.110
I will tell you something about the principles of the power

23:19.110 --> 23:21.250
distribution network, something about market structures.

23:21.390 --> 23:23.850
Very little about market structures, because that's really not my

23:23.850 --> 23:24.090
topic.

23:25.310 --> 23:29.530
But a little bit you have to know as a background for this course.

23:29.810 --> 23:34.410
Then something on balancing zones, like how we can actually have...

23:34.410 --> 23:40.950
or how the typical stabilization of the network currently is going on,

23:40.950 --> 23:47.790
that has to do with balancing groups with primary, secondary, tertiary

23:47.790 --> 23:49.510
balancing power or control power.

23:50.030 --> 23:53.270
Then we will talk about self-organizing balancing power and approach

23:53.270 --> 23:54.870
that has been designed in our group.

23:55.290 --> 23:57.970
Smart home and energy management, smart metering, smart media

23:57.970 --> 24:01.330
security, electric mobility, storage integration, and a summary.

24:02.070 --> 24:05.790
And that's quite a program, and I hope to be able to cover that in the

24:05.790 --> 24:08.610
six afternoons that we will be together.

24:10.110 --> 24:12.770
That's the contents that we will have here.

24:13.110 --> 24:17.970
As I said, we will be able to visit the KIT Energy Smart Home Lab and

24:17.970 --> 24:18.910
the House of Living Labs.

24:19.070 --> 24:24.870
There are also open days, like end of June, there is the open house

24:24.870 --> 24:28.370
here at KIT, where the Energy Smart Home Lab will be open, so you have

24:28.370 --> 24:31.510
a chance to visit that anyway there, but together with many other

24:31.510 --> 24:32.270
people who will come.

24:32.270 --> 24:35.610
And the House of Living Labs usually has a student day where you can

24:35.610 --> 24:40.630
also go and get information, but I will also offer you the exclusive

24:40.630 --> 24:44.190
possibility to just have a brief visit there.

24:44.290 --> 24:45.530
We will talk about that later on.

24:46.430 --> 24:52.650
There will be an exam, a final exam at the end of this term, based on

24:52.650 --> 24:54.690
the material that I am presenting to you in class.

24:54.690 --> 24:59.970
Then I certainly also recommend to you further material.

25:00.470 --> 25:04.390
I will give you links to other topics, but this will not be part of

25:04.390 --> 25:10.210
the exam, so I think I have sufficient content that I can ask you

25:10.210 --> 25:10.610
about.

25:11.190 --> 25:16.490
The conditions of the exam will be set according to the general rules

25:16.490 --> 25:20.170
of this program of study, so definitely written or oral.

25:20.750 --> 25:24.330
I guess it will be written, looking at the number of students that are

25:24.330 --> 25:24.810
here now.

25:25.290 --> 25:29.170
I know that usually there are a few more students which look at the

25:29.170 --> 25:36.530
course just on the recorded lectures, and so I assume that it's more

25:36.530 --> 25:41.710
than I can take in an oral exam, but this will be ultimately decided

25:41.710 --> 25:47.630
only after I see the number of registrations for this final exam,

25:47.790 --> 25:50.110
which will happen at the beginning of July.

25:50.270 --> 25:54.230
So until the end of June, you will have to be able to register for the

25:54.230 --> 25:57.530
exam, and then I see whether it will be a written or oral, but I

25:57.530 --> 25:59.130
assume that it will be a written exam.

25:59.610 --> 26:04.270
And then the exam date will be on one of the days between July 20 and

26:04.270 --> 26:09.330
July 22, so that's Monday to Wednesday in the week after the end of

26:09.330 --> 26:11.170
lectures of this summer term.

26:12.370 --> 26:13.530
Who is the target group?

26:13.990 --> 26:18.970
So there is the master program Energy Technology, the kick in energy.

26:19.230 --> 26:22.570
Who is present here from that program?

26:23.350 --> 26:23.990
Just a few.

26:26.090 --> 26:30.050
Initially, the first time I offered this course was exclusively for

26:30.050 --> 26:35.210
that group of students, so for only students from that class there, I

26:35.210 --> 26:38.410
don't know how many students currently are in that program, but it's

26:38.410 --> 26:39.210
good that you are here.

26:40.130 --> 26:42.770
Then there's the master program Industrial Engineering and Management,

26:42.950 --> 26:44.270
which is Wirtschaftsingenieurwesen.

26:44.870 --> 26:46.810
I guess that several of that program are here.

26:46.910 --> 26:48.570
Who is from that program?

26:49.050 --> 26:49.770
Most of you.

26:50.310 --> 26:52.270
Then who is from a different program?

26:53.290 --> 26:54.070
From which program?

26:56.610 --> 26:57.690
Energy Technik.

26:57.830 --> 27:02.890
Yes, so that's the equivalent to Energy Technology and Tech.

27:04.110 --> 27:06.870
So welcome to this course.

27:08.410 --> 27:11.610
So we'll see what we make out of that.

27:11.930 --> 27:14.690
And certainly I'm glad to get your feedback.

27:15.030 --> 27:19.030
As always, you will have a chance to provide the typical feedback on

27:19.030 --> 27:23.730
the evaluation sheets that you will get the evaluation forms sometime

27:23.730 --> 27:25.630
later on in this course.

27:26.190 --> 27:30.770
But in addition to that, you are welcome to send me messages or tell

27:30.770 --> 27:35.910
me directly in which way you would suggest to change this course or

27:35.910 --> 27:41.410
have it made a little bit direct or maybe change the topics or type of

27:41.410 --> 27:41.870
presentation.

27:41.870 --> 27:50.950
I should remark that in winter semester or starting in winter semester

27:50.950 --> 28:06.370
2015 -16 there will be a new course on Energieinformatik or Energy

28:06.370 --> 28:12.310
Informatics This is taught by my new colleague, Veit Hagenmayer.

28:12.450 --> 28:17.850
He is the Chair of Energy Informatics, located in the Institute for

28:17.850 --> 28:19.930
Applied Computer Science.

28:20.750 --> 28:25.930
He is actually located in the Faculty of Informatics, and so he is

28:25.930 --> 28:31.410
teaching the course Energy Informatics, starting the coming winter

28:31.410 --> 28:31.850
term.

28:31.850 --> 28:37.530
But I will continue to present this course on smart energy

28:37.530 --> 28:42.090
distribution, because it's for a different group of students, and I'm

28:42.090 --> 28:43.050
teaching it in English.

28:43.250 --> 28:48.910
He is teaching it in Informatics, which will also have some slightly

28:48.910 --> 28:51.590
different orientation.

28:52.390 --> 28:55.230
He is teaching that mainly for students of Informatics.

28:55.390 --> 28:58.090
I assume that there is no student of Informatics in this room?

28:58.930 --> 29:02.810
Not so, you see, it's a different target group.

29:03.310 --> 29:08.650
Okay, that's organizational things as the first or zeroth chapter of

29:08.650 --> 29:09.190
this course.

29:09.530 --> 29:11.350
Any questions with respect to the organization?

29:13.230 --> 29:14.350
No questions?

29:14.710 --> 29:22.870
Okay, then let's go to the next chapter, the first real chapter that

29:22.870 --> 29:24.630
we are looking at.

29:25.460 --> 29:31.110
I would like to tell you something about motivation and need for

29:31.110 --> 29:37.530
information and communication technologies in an area that up to a few

29:37.530 --> 29:43.270
years ago was an area which was almost completely and perfectly

29:43.270 --> 29:47.930
covered by people from power engineering, to some extent from

29:47.930 --> 29:52.870
mechanical engineering, to some extent by people from energy

29:52.870 --> 29:53.310
economics.

29:53.310 --> 29:56.630
And all of a sudden we claim that that is not sufficient anymore.

29:57.390 --> 30:02.190
And certainly this is something which is happening sometimes, but it's

30:02.190 --> 30:06.370
always a difficult development, because all of a sudden people enter a

30:06.370 --> 30:08.710
field where they actually don't have the background.

30:09.050 --> 30:11.990
They have to enter a new field, have to learn something about this

30:11.990 --> 30:16.170
area, and they have to show what kind of contributions they can make

30:16.170 --> 30:21.090
in order to cope with the problems that somehow have arisen there that

30:21.090 --> 30:26.390
were not treated adequately or cannot be treated adequately based on

30:26.390 --> 30:30.550
the competences that are available in the traditional areas that are

30:30.550 --> 30:33.130
related to energy systems.

30:33.990 --> 30:37.410
And so let me tell you a little bit, just a few things around that,

30:37.490 --> 30:41.570
and I will start with something which you say, oh, I have heard that

30:41.570 --> 30:42.490
so many times.

30:42.490 --> 30:47.430
But nevertheless, I will have to address that just to show you the

30:47.430 --> 30:51.370
motivation and the background, what kind of challenges arise from

30:51.370 --> 30:58.430
certain changes in the overall scenario, such that we need ICT all of

30:58.430 --> 30:58.730
a sudden.

30:59.250 --> 31:05.850
So the first thing that happened, or initial milestone, was that in

31:05.850 --> 31:12.470
2007, the European leaders came up with new strategic program for

31:12.470 --> 31:15.710
development of energy technology.

31:15.970 --> 31:22.530
So the strategic energy technology plan came up with certain targets,

31:22.770 --> 31:25.830
which were abbreviated as 20-20-20.

31:26.310 --> 31:29.610
You know that politicians always need simple messages.

31:29.610 --> 31:35.390
They just don't like to have to explain something which is very

31:35.390 --> 31:38.690
complicated, because they assume that those who are listening are not

31:38.690 --> 31:41.610
capable to actually remember complex messages.

31:42.230 --> 31:47.070
So you need simple messages, and 20-20-20 is simple enough.

31:47.730 --> 31:49.730
So what is it about?

31:50.030 --> 31:55.610
It has to do with the year 2020, that was in 2007, and they said that

31:55.610 --> 32:00.510
they would like to get a 20% reduction of EU greenhouse gas emissions.

32:00.710 --> 32:01.590
That's one thing.

32:01.970 --> 32:10.510
Reduction compared to 1990.

32:11.210 --> 32:12.950
A reduction compared to that.

32:12.990 --> 32:14.550
That's the base year at that time.

32:14.550 --> 32:21.830
Then 20% share of renewables of overall EU energy consumption, and a

32:21.830 --> 32:23.930
20 % increase in energy efficiency.

32:24.650 --> 32:28.030
So increase in energy efficiency means a decrease in energy

32:28.030 --> 32:33.350
consumption, all relative to 1990.

32:36.310 --> 32:42.530
So this is a goal which at that time was very ambitious, and in

32:42.530 --> 32:47.370
Germany at that time people were more ambitious, and a few years later

32:47.370 --> 32:50.890
in particular, the government had to make some statements about their

32:50.890 --> 32:52.710
long -range strategy.

32:53.590 --> 32:57.490
And you know that all these strategies have to do with the problem

32:57.490 --> 33:01.770
that everybody saw, that we have a problem with our climate change, we

33:01.770 --> 33:06.230
have to reduce carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas emissions, and so

33:06.230 --> 33:08.510
people tried to do something.

33:09.170 --> 33:13.850
And in the fall of 2010, maybe you remember, that was the year when

33:13.850 --> 33:17.950
the government at that time said, we would like to prolong the runtime

33:17.950 --> 33:19.410
of nuclear power plants.

33:20.090 --> 33:24.570
And a very important goal they had, because before there had been a

33:24.570 --> 33:28.670
government which said the opposite, we would like to restrict the

33:28.670 --> 33:33.450
runtime of power plants, so they said we have to prolong it, but not

33:33.450 --> 33:37.890
because we don't want this transformation to renewables anymore, but

33:37.890 --> 33:42.250
we need more time, they said, in order to actually be capable to

33:42.250 --> 33:49.010
perform that transition in a realistic and very systematic way, and

33:49.010 --> 33:54.550
prolonging the runtime of nuclear power plants will give us this time

33:54.550 --> 33:56.490
that we need to develop all the technologies.

33:57.290 --> 33:59.030
That wasn't for 2010.

33:59.630 --> 34:04.070
And they said, we are still more ambitious than what we said in 2007

34:04.070 --> 34:08.830
in accordance or in agreement with the other European leaders, we want

34:08.830 --> 34:14.510
30 % renewables by 2020 already, and now I have a problem that my

34:14.510 --> 34:20.690
battery is low on power, so I need some prolongation cable, because my

34:20.690 --> 34:26.670
power supply is not sufficiently long to get attached to that plug in

34:26.670 --> 34:26.990
the...

34:27.350 --> 34:28.870
or that power outlet there.

34:30.390 --> 34:31.610
But it's closed.

34:32.430 --> 34:33.770
There are screws on it.

34:34.390 --> 34:34.950
They're closed.

34:35.310 --> 34:39.090
There's a power outlet over there, but my cable is not sufficiently

34:39.090 --> 34:40.270
long for that.

34:40.270 --> 34:42.050
That's what I assume.

34:42.310 --> 34:47.270
I can... no, it would not... I can try to go further over there, but

34:47.270 --> 34:48.730
Sebastian Kochenegg is already running.

34:49.750 --> 34:53.790
So... but I think I should... maybe I should just walk closer over

34:53.790 --> 34:55.750
here, then you can still see that.

34:56.470 --> 34:58.070
And then it might work.

34:59.450 --> 34:59.770
Oops.

35:04.210 --> 35:06.810
Let's see whether that is sufficient.

35:07.670 --> 35:08.610
Not quite.

35:12.040 --> 35:14.800
Now it is sufficient.

35:14.900 --> 35:17.340
Can you still see the presentation?

35:17.820 --> 35:19.960
Okay, that's perfect, so we can continue.

35:20.660 --> 35:28.140
And now I embarrass him that he had to get the cable, and I have

35:28.140 --> 35:29.560
already solved the problem.

35:29.560 --> 35:35.760
Okay, so we were talking about fall 2010, and so we have these

35:35.760 --> 35:46.520
ambitious goals, 50% renewables by 2030, 80% by 2050, and so everybody

35:46.520 --> 35:50.660
was satisfied that we would still have that goal.

35:51.220 --> 35:56.020
And then you remember that in 2011 we had this catastrophic event at

35:56.020 --> 35:59.940
Fukushima, and the government decided exactly the opposite.

36:00.580 --> 36:04.420
They said now they want to have this so-called Energiewende, where all

36:04.420 --> 36:08.120
of a sudden they decide to have a highly accelerated replacement of

36:08.120 --> 36:09.840
nuclear power plants with renewables.

36:10.640 --> 36:14.700
You see that I already solved the problem by moving the notebook

36:14.700 --> 36:15.760
closer to that.

36:16.260 --> 36:21.820
Sorry for sending you off, and thank you for getting some more power.

36:21.820 --> 36:28.760
Okay, so this is the Energiewende.

36:29.140 --> 36:32.640
What does it mean to have a replacement of nuclear power plants in

36:32.640 --> 36:32.920
Germany?

36:33.440 --> 36:38.780
So in 2010, the power that was generated by nuclear power plants in

36:38.780 --> 36:43.660
Germany was 140 terawatt hours, 22% of the total power generation in

36:43.660 --> 36:43.940
Germany.

36:44.840 --> 36:46.640
That's what we have to replace.

36:47.540 --> 36:55.540
Now in 2012, it was already reduced, because several nuclear power

36:55.540 --> 36:58.120
plants actually had to be switched off.

36:58.620 --> 37:04.420
Nowadays we have something like between 5 and 10 gigawatt steady power

37:04.420 --> 37:09.560
generation from nuclear power plants every day, and so that's now

37:09.560 --> 37:11.240
around 90 terawatt hours.

37:11.240 --> 37:15.540
And now, so already reduced from the 140 there.

37:16.100 --> 37:20.800
And in 2022, or by the year 2022, we would like to reduce that to

37:20.800 --> 37:21.100
zero.

37:21.920 --> 37:26.680
So a problem that we see there is we have to be able to close that

37:26.680 --> 37:28.580
gap, if there is a gap at all.

37:29.480 --> 37:34.380
So we need to replace the amount of energy that has been generated by

37:34.380 --> 37:38.180
nuclear power plants with something else, if there is the need for it.

37:38.960 --> 37:44.400
So you see that we had here this plan of 20% increase in energy

37:44.400 --> 37:47.820
efficiency, where the plan is much more ambitious in Germany.

37:48.380 --> 37:52.980
So if we reduce the power demand significantly, we don't need that

37:52.980 --> 37:57.980
much power, and maybe the need is not 140 terawatt hours, but less

37:57.980 --> 37:58.500
than that.

37:58.500 --> 38:04.340
But this would be the simplest version of the challenges that we have

38:04.340 --> 38:07.560
to cope with, just to replace a certain amount of energy.

38:09.160 --> 38:14.500
And now I would like to address also another aspect.

38:15.080 --> 38:19.160
There is the term in a givende, has many associations.

38:19.160 --> 38:24.560
And I'm a sailor, and for a sailor there is one association which says

38:24.560 --> 38:29.920
that, well, wenden means tacking with a sailing boat.

38:30.020 --> 38:35.020
So tacking means you are sailing and you have a certain goal.

38:35.160 --> 38:39.580
The goal is here, somewhere, and you would like to get there.

38:39.700 --> 38:45.280
The straight direction would be this way from, let's say, south to

38:45.280 --> 38:45.560
north.

38:45.560 --> 38:47.920
Now the wind is blowing against you.

38:48.180 --> 38:49.440
No problem for a sailor.

38:49.960 --> 38:55.660
A sailor can tack, and that means that the sailor has a certain goal

38:55.660 --> 39:01.880
in mind, and then he can slightly go into different directions, but

39:01.880 --> 39:06.040
change direction several times, and still has that goal in mind.

39:06.160 --> 39:09.380
So you have a change in direction here, you have another one there,

39:10.300 --> 39:14.900
but still you are getting closer to your initial goal.

39:15.760 --> 39:17.960
And in this way you can see the in a givende.

39:18.540 --> 39:23.560
As one of the many decisions that we have to take on the path towards

39:23.560 --> 39:25.560
the goal that we ultimately have.

39:26.000 --> 39:31.260
And you can be sure there will be more changes of directions on our

39:31.260 --> 39:34.840
path to what we have as a goal for the year 2050.

39:34.840 --> 39:39.340
But the main point is that we do not turn around.

39:40.120 --> 39:44.360
Some people say that in a givende has something to do with a

39:44.360 --> 39:44.820
turnaround.

39:45.720 --> 39:50.380
A turnaround would be forgetting your previous goals and doing

39:50.380 --> 39:51.600
something completely different.

39:52.410 --> 40:00.420
We still have the goal, and this was there at least until the year

40:00.420 --> 40:09.020
2007, to get rid of fossil fuels and also of nuclear power, and to go

40:09.020 --> 40:16.580
almost completely to renewable sources for energy.

40:16.580 --> 40:22.260
That's our ultimate goal, because that would significantly reduce our

40:22.260 --> 40:27.400
dependency on fossil fuels, which are limited, whereas the renewable

40:27.400 --> 40:29.900
energy by its name is not limited.

40:30.140 --> 40:35.900
That's a continuous resource that we will be able to exploit

40:35.900 --> 40:37.300
indefinitely.

40:37.980 --> 40:41.740
And so this would be the ultimate goal that we certainly have to go

40:41.740 --> 40:42.020
for.

40:43.740 --> 40:50.060
Energiewende is not turning around 180 degrees, although we actually

40:50.060 --> 40:54.980
got awarded a prize in the competition Energiewende 180 Grad.

40:55.940 --> 40:57.360
So 180 degrees.

40:57.620 --> 41:00.980
So this is in some way a little bit contradictory.

41:00.980 --> 41:07.580
So we did not reject that prize, but we certainly know that we are at

41:07.580 --> 41:16.240
most making a turn by maybe 90 or 110 degrees or something like that,

41:16.320 --> 41:17.160
but not more.

41:17.780 --> 41:21.420
Just meaning we will always keep that goal in mind.

41:21.420 --> 41:28.780
And just to come back to this sailing thing, if you do a tack not

41:28.780 --> 41:32.240
properly, disasters can happen, as you can see here in sailing.

41:32.520 --> 41:36.840
You just see that tack is not carried out properly.

41:37.480 --> 41:42.280
And there's one more point, something like this can happen when you

41:42.280 --> 41:42.800
are sailing.

41:43.760 --> 41:48.520
If you don't observe certain rules that are around tacking, the first

41:48.520 --> 41:51.900
thing you do when you want to perform a tack is that you say, ready

41:51.900 --> 41:57.220
for a tack, not for a tack, but for a tack, for a wende.

41:58.360 --> 42:04.440
And you only perform that maneuver if everybody answers, I'm ready.

42:04.440 --> 42:12.280
Nobody asked the question, are you ready for the energiewende before

42:12.280 --> 42:13.460
they did the energiewende.

42:14.560 --> 42:16.980
So this is also interesting.

42:17.660 --> 42:21.780
Sometimes maybe it's essential that you do something even without

42:21.780 --> 42:26.620
having asked everybody, but then certainly some people might get lost.

42:27.600 --> 42:30.920
But if too many get lost, then you really run into problems.

42:31.680 --> 42:38.320
So this is just a little bit talking about things that are not really

42:38.320 --> 42:41.940
related to energy systems, but are related to what we are doing

42:41.940 --> 42:51.360
currently in the way we try to perform that energy transition, a

42:51.360 --> 42:56.360
transition from one type of system to a new type of system.

42:56.360 --> 43:00.320
So energy transition is the adequate translation of energiewende,

43:00.660 --> 43:03.740
although we don't have to translate that word anymore, because

43:03.740 --> 43:06.680
energiewende, meanwhile, is also a word in English and French.

43:09.540 --> 43:12.680
So what are the real problems we have to address?

43:13.020 --> 43:18.060
So the simple problem, as I said, is replace the amount of energy that

43:18.060 --> 43:22.340
so far was generated by nuclear power plants with energy from

43:22.340 --> 43:22.980
renewables.

43:22.980 --> 43:25.160
But this is just a very simple problem.

43:26.020 --> 43:30.560
Much more difficult is to cope with the fluctuations that are there

43:30.560 --> 43:35.940
just because of the characteristics of this transition to renewables.

43:36.260 --> 43:39.860
The first thing that is indicated on this slide is that we have to

43:39.860 --> 43:41.440
deal with fluctuations.

43:42.300 --> 43:44.080
Fluctuations in demand and supply.

43:44.240 --> 43:49.020
Now, fluctuations in demand, indicated here in red, are something

43:49.020 --> 43:51.140
which we have known for a long time.

43:51.140 --> 43:55.480
This is nothing which any power engineer is afraid of, because they

43:55.480 --> 43:56.320
can deal with that.

43:57.020 --> 44:00.560
So this is fluctuations in demand, which are very predictable.

44:01.280 --> 44:04.420
Here, what you see is two weeks in May 2010.

44:04.620 --> 44:09.020
I could give you a similar picture for two weeks in April 2015.

44:09.300 --> 44:10.960
They wouldn't look very different.

44:11.780 --> 44:16.800
So we have peaks always around noon and in the evening.

44:18.240 --> 44:20.820
So this is the typical pattern.

44:22.080 --> 44:26.260
And there are some days where you have higher energy consumption, some

44:26.260 --> 44:27.880
days where you have lower energy consumption.

44:28.780 --> 44:31.740
So here you have a weekend.

44:32.140 --> 44:33.980
There probably was also a weekend.

44:34.800 --> 44:36.720
And so you have lower energy consumption.

44:37.240 --> 44:40.860
And then you have these fluctuations on different scales.

44:41.020 --> 44:42.560
We have fluctuations within a day.

44:43.240 --> 44:45.360
So very short, very small scale.

44:45.360 --> 44:50.570
You have variations like night and day variations.

44:51.280 --> 44:52.440
And you have weekly variations.

44:52.620 --> 44:55.540
You will also see seasonal variations in that.

44:56.080 --> 44:57.640
But people know how to deal with that.

44:58.300 --> 45:03.540
And now we have the energy generation, or power generation, indicated

45:03.540 --> 45:09.280
here in yellow for wind and blue for photovoltaic.

45:09.280 --> 45:14.660
The association with colors on this slide is different from the colors

45:14.660 --> 45:18.540
that I will use on the other slides and on the following slides.

45:18.740 --> 45:21.700
But you can see the effects here.

45:22.000 --> 45:24.980
The yellow line here has to do with wind.

45:25.600 --> 45:29.540
And what you see there immediately is that there have been, like in

45:29.540 --> 45:34.580
May 2010, and you can see that very often during the year, that there

45:34.580 --> 45:37.320
may be several days where you have almost no wind.

45:37.320 --> 45:43.980
Having almost no wind means that almost no or none of those wind power

45:43.980 --> 45:45.680
plants can generate power.

45:46.420 --> 45:49.880
And so what are you doing in times of a dead calm?

45:51.340 --> 45:52.340
That's a problem.

45:53.200 --> 45:56.920
Now during the day, you always have, like here in May, the sun was

45:56.920 --> 45:57.280
shining.

45:57.760 --> 46:01.520
And you see that you always have these peaks during the day of power

46:01.520 --> 46:05.760
generation from photovoltaic panels, even on some days more than on

46:05.760 --> 46:06.120
others.

46:06.120 --> 46:12.480
And then there are days where we have power generation from PV and

46:12.480 --> 46:13.780
also from wind.

46:13.940 --> 46:19.960
Here we actually had strong wind, in particular on a day where the

46:19.960 --> 46:22.140
power demand was quite low.

46:23.000 --> 46:27.600
Now situations like that are happening more and more, that you have

46:27.600 --> 46:32.520
not that much demand on some days, in particular on weekends and on

46:32.520 --> 46:33.800
some specific holidays.

46:34.800 --> 46:41.300
And you have strong wind, a lot of sun, people rejoice about a lot of

46:41.300 --> 46:41.600
sun.

46:43.520 --> 46:47.560
And some people also rejoice about that situation, are very glad about

46:47.560 --> 46:52.280
that, because that leads to negative prices on the energy markets, on

46:52.280 --> 46:53.480
the spot market.

46:54.060 --> 46:59.940
And so you might be paid as an owner, for example, of a pumped hydro

46:59.940 --> 47:05.280
storage facility in Austria, you are paid for pumping your water

47:05.280 --> 47:10.380
uphill into your water tanks, and later on, when the price goes

47:10.380 --> 47:15.160
positive again, you get paid again for providing power.

47:15.640 --> 47:18.060
And so you are paid all the time, regardless of what you do, whether

47:18.060 --> 47:21.740
you're pumping water uphill or letting it flow downhill, that's a

47:21.740 --> 47:22.580
perfect money machine.

47:23.440 --> 47:27.120
But we certainly are not that glad about that, because we don't want

47:27.120 --> 47:30.540
to pay the Austrians for pumping our water uphill and letting it flow

47:30.540 --> 47:31.040
down again.

47:31.040 --> 47:34.980
And so, this is something we have to deal with in some way.

47:35.700 --> 47:40.380
It looks like we have to be able to somehow move the power from there

47:40.380 --> 47:44.280
to there, but that's over several days, and that's definitely a

47:44.280 --> 47:45.920
problem, we need storage for that.

47:46.540 --> 47:49.220
So, we have variations at different timescales.

47:49.960 --> 47:54.180
The problem is that they are only partially predictable, the load is

47:54.180 --> 47:58.540
more or less predictable, power generation from photovoltaics is also

47:58.540 --> 48:03.260
more or less predictable, also from wind is more or less predictable

48:03.260 --> 48:08.440
on a larger scale, but if you look at the local scale, it's very hard

48:08.440 --> 48:10.360
to predict with a high accuracy.

48:11.300 --> 48:14.500
And so these are problems, how can we actually deal with those

48:14.500 --> 48:15.020
fluctuations?

48:15.020 --> 48:23.000
So, in some way, if we can no longer control the way we generate

48:23.000 --> 48:30.080
power, which we could in times of just using fossil fuels, having coal

48:30.080 --> 48:34.980
power plants and gas power plants and nuclear power plants, all of a

48:34.980 --> 48:38.280
sudden we might need something like demand and supply management.

48:39.150 --> 48:42.680
And if we talk about management, we talk about information systems,

48:42.740 --> 48:45.700
about communication and things like that, that's an area where

48:45.700 --> 48:51.300
probably we will need some ICT or informatics components.

48:52.220 --> 48:57.240
The problem how to compensate for a dead calm is really a problem, and

48:57.240 --> 49:01.860
in particular look at wintertime where you might have snow.

49:01.860 --> 49:08.560
If snow is falling and you have a very nice winter day, no wind, snow

49:08.560 --> 49:14.300
has fallen, even the sun may be shining, and it's a perfect day, but

49:14.300 --> 49:19.260
there's no power generation, no wind, all the PV cells covered with

49:19.260 --> 49:22.020
snow, how do you get power?

49:22.620 --> 49:23.400
That's a problem.

49:23.780 --> 49:27.640
So, I as a computer scientist cannot solve that problem.

49:28.840 --> 49:33.700
So, software information processing does not help to take away the

49:33.700 --> 49:35.540
snow from PV cell.

49:36.700 --> 49:42.140
Maybe we can let the wind power plants turn the rotors around, but

49:42.140 --> 49:45.740
that would not generate power, but use power if we do that, by

49:45.740 --> 49:48.160
switching them on in some way, but that's not a solution.

49:48.600 --> 49:50.700
So, we have to deal with fluctuations.

49:51.260 --> 49:57.620
This is one of the major challenges to do that, and this is asking

49:57.620 --> 50:03.380
something which has not been addressed in the past in that way.

50:03.960 --> 50:08.320
Let me just show you a few slides on typical power generation, how it

50:08.320 --> 50:09.280
looks like nowadays.

50:09.600 --> 50:14.440
So, this is just some graph showing power generation on just two

50:14.440 --> 50:15.220
sample days.

50:16.080 --> 50:22.900
Sometimes I update these diagrams to show you current situations, but

50:22.900 --> 50:24.100
they look similar.

50:24.900 --> 50:29.660
So, what we have currently is a picture where we have quite some

50:29.660 --> 50:33.600
stable generation from nuclear power plants, as I said, around 10

50:33.600 --> 50:34.220
gigawatt.

50:34.820 --> 50:39.180
Then we have quite a bit power generation from coal, that's lignite

50:39.180 --> 50:40.260
and coal.

50:41.520 --> 50:49.460
And then we have others like biogas plants, we have wind, we have PV.

50:49.660 --> 50:53.780
And here what you see is some changing amount, like the blue line here

50:53.780 --> 50:56.720
is wind, the yellow line here is PV.

50:57.240 --> 51:02.700
So, two days where we have quite a bit of power generation from solar

51:02.700 --> 51:03.400
panels.

51:03.400 --> 51:09.080
So, you see here something from 38 to almost 60, that's 22 gigawatt,

51:10.020 --> 51:13.620
twice as much as at that point in time we had for nuclear power

51:13.620 --> 51:14.140
plants.

51:14.680 --> 51:18.820
So, this is significant, but certainly only the peak generation.

51:19.500 --> 51:25.260
And nothing from power plants during the night, but since the major

51:25.260 --> 51:30.520
power demand comes during the day, this looks not that bad if we have

51:30.520 --> 51:31.680
something like that.

51:31.680 --> 51:35.760
But it just shows that's the typical pattern of power generation that

51:35.760 --> 51:36.780
we see in the moment.

51:37.740 --> 51:41.860
And then we have these changes that on some days we have another

51:41.860 --> 51:46.560
diagram that you can also look at.

51:47.420 --> 51:55.180
This is like showing here the power generation on the 27th of June,

51:55.260 --> 52:00.600
that was in 2011, and in January 2012.

52:01.520 --> 52:07.980
You can easily pick those days also from 2014 and 2015, where you have

52:07.980 --> 52:11.280
a day with a lot of sun and almost no wind.

52:11.280 --> 52:16.100
Wind here is green and PV is yellow.

52:17.240 --> 52:25.100
So, here on that day there was a 12 gigawatt peak from PV and 2

52:25.100 --> 52:27.880
gigawatt from wind.

52:28.820 --> 52:35.080
And actually nuclear power at that day was 10.3 gigawatt.

52:36.060 --> 52:41.920
In January there was just very little from PV, 1.8 there, a little

52:41.920 --> 52:48.000
bit, the top hours for that, 22 gigawatt from wind, quite a bit.

52:48.820 --> 52:53.320
And for some reasons, some more of the nuclear power plants had been

52:53.320 --> 52:56.840
switched off, only 5.7 gigawatt steady.

52:57.620 --> 53:02.220
So, very different situations, the power generation situation is

53:02.220 --> 53:02.560
different.

53:02.840 --> 53:08.280
And this is something you cannot plan for months or years ahead what

53:08.280 --> 53:14.480
you can do with standard power plants in the typical way a utility

53:14.480 --> 53:15.340
would operate.

53:15.960 --> 53:21.200
The power plant providers or operators, they usually have quite a long

53:21.200 --> 53:25.300
plan for how to use their power plants, and they can do that.

53:25.300 --> 53:31.900
So, usually in a very stable way, there is nothing you can plan for

53:31.900 --> 53:35.260
power generation from wind or PV cells.

53:36.300 --> 53:41.120
By the way, this is actually coming from this website which you might

53:41.120 --> 53:45.080
know, like here, Transparency EX.

53:45.640 --> 53:49.980
This is the Transparency in Energy Markets website which actually

53:49.980 --> 53:52.540
changed recently in its appearance.

53:52.540 --> 53:57.360
So, this is actually showing the situation that we have today.

53:58.060 --> 54:02.280
So, not up to the current hour, but 11 to 12 o'clock.

54:02.680 --> 54:09.840
Today, we have 11.7 gigawatt from PV cells, 7 gigawatt from wind, and

54:09.840 --> 54:13.240
42.6 gigawatt from other sources.

54:13.960 --> 54:19.120
So, this is interesting to look at now, and you can select the day

54:19.120 --> 54:20.340
that you actually want to look at.

54:20.340 --> 54:27.620
And what I showed you, or that was taken from that website, or from

54:27.620 --> 54:33.860
the previous version, where it was shown in a slightly different way,

54:33.940 --> 54:35.280
but that doesn't matter really.

54:35.960 --> 54:40.400
So, here you see significant changes in the amount of energy you get

54:40.400 --> 54:42.380
either from PV or from wind.

54:42.380 --> 54:46.560
And then there is this other problem, also from that website.

54:47.240 --> 54:52.720
You get information on what actually has been planned, or I would say,

54:52.920 --> 54:57.680
like on that website they say that is the planned production, but

54:57.680 --> 55:02.220
essentially one would say not planned, but it is actually the

55:02.220 --> 55:09.160
predicted production of power from all kinds of sources.

55:09.160 --> 55:13.040
So, in particular also from wind and PV cells.

55:13.580 --> 55:19.340
So, the predicted power generation for that day, for a day almost

55:19.340 --> 55:28.080
exactly two years ago, was that the predicted power generation was 17

55:28.080 --> 55:37.900
.3 gigawatt peak from photovoltaics and 5.9 gigawatt peak from wind.

55:40.380 --> 55:44.240
Since it is fluctuating, I only refer here to the peak, you certainly

55:44.240 --> 55:49.700
could also refer to the mean value, or the median, or whatever you

55:49.700 --> 55:50.000
like.

55:50.840 --> 55:56.340
But what you see is that the actual production during that day was

55:56.340 --> 55:57.180
slightly different.

55:57.200 --> 55:59.900
It doesn't look that much different, but you see that it has a

55:59.900 --> 56:00.540
different shape.

56:00.620 --> 56:08.020
In particular, the actual power generation from PV was 23 gigawatt in

56:08.020 --> 56:12.580
the peak, and the actual generation from wind was 6.4 gigawatt.

56:12.580 --> 56:18.920
And it shows that you have around 7 gigawatt more power generation

56:18.920 --> 56:20.500
than you had predicted.

56:20.960 --> 56:23.100
And this prediction was done the day before.

56:24.200 --> 56:28.740
So, this shows that from one day to the next, you have a change that

56:28.740 --> 56:32.820
you have to cope with that is equivalent to whether you have five

56:32.820 --> 56:34.380
nuclear power plants or not.

56:35.780 --> 56:38.820
That's what five nuclear power plants can provide.

56:40.000 --> 56:41.200
This is quite significant.

56:42.280 --> 56:44.720
This is happening from one day to the next.

56:44.880 --> 56:50.660
You don't know exactly whether you need them or not, but you have to

56:50.660 --> 56:51.160
cope with that.

56:51.240 --> 56:54.100
You have to make sure that the demand is actually satisfied.

56:56.520 --> 56:59.460
And it's like I said, that's from one day to the next.

57:00.140 --> 57:08.060
Actually, if you look at the intraday predictions within a day for the

57:08.060 --> 57:11.940
next hour or something, you might have changes in power generation

57:11.940 --> 57:13.740
which are quite dramatic.

57:14.680 --> 57:19.460
Assume that you have an area and you have a lot of PV cells and there

57:19.460 --> 57:20.880
are clouds on the sky.

57:20.880 --> 57:24.380
And certainly, the clouds are moving over the area.

57:24.620 --> 57:28.940
And so, from one point to the next, you all of a sudden have no power

57:28.940 --> 57:32.400
generation or almost no power generation or at least heavily reduced

57:32.400 --> 57:34.080
power generation from PV.

57:34.320 --> 57:37.480
And then it's increasing again because the cloud is moving away.

57:38.600 --> 57:40.260
And you have to cope with those changes.

57:40.360 --> 57:44.660
Certainly, on a larger area, this cloud is moving only partially over

57:44.660 --> 57:45.140
that area.

57:45.260 --> 57:47.420
And so, it is some smoothing effect.

57:47.840 --> 57:49.540
But nevertheless, you have these changes.

57:49.540 --> 57:53.360
And if you just look at the PV cells on your rooftop, on a single

57:53.360 --> 57:57.900
house, and you would like to predict what kind of power generation you

57:57.900 --> 58:02.680
have from your rooftop, there you have all kinds of drastic changes.

58:03.500 --> 58:08.280
And in some way, if you, for example, try to get autarkic, independent

58:08.280 --> 58:11.360
of the power system, just depend on your power generation from the

58:11.360 --> 58:16.600
rooftop, you would have to develop quite a bit of flexibility to cope

58:16.600 --> 58:17.000
with that.

58:18.220 --> 58:23.460
So, very strange changes that we have to actually deal with.

58:24.620 --> 58:28.060
So, the question is how we deal with these deviations between

58:28.060 --> 58:31.380
predicted and actual power generation.

58:32.860 --> 58:37.920
And so, that's with respect to, the first was fluctuations, and now

58:37.920 --> 58:39.320
this is about uncertainty.

58:39.500 --> 58:42.640
We don't know exactly what will be the situation that we have to cope

58:42.640 --> 58:42.880
with.

58:42.880 --> 58:46.860
We know we have to cope with fluctuations, but we don't know exactly

58:46.860 --> 58:48.620
to what extent they actually will occur.

58:49.340 --> 58:53.500
And so, this is something where exact planning does not work, and in

58:53.500 --> 59:00.620
particular, where a stable operation of power plants is no longer

59:00.620 --> 59:01.380
really possible.

59:01.380 --> 59:07.220
You need power plants that can adjust in a very flexible way to these

59:07.220 --> 59:07.640
changes.

59:07.800 --> 59:12.540
Not just power plants, but just the load that you have on the system

59:12.540 --> 59:20.320
has to be able to be adapted in maybe very short timescales.

59:22.040 --> 59:26.980
Now, people have made studies on the energy situation that we will be

59:26.980 --> 59:30.860
confronted with in the future, in particular in the year 2050.

59:31.620 --> 59:36.960
So, the Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy Systems, they made a

59:36.960 --> 59:43.240
study forecast based on the weather data from the year 2007.

59:43.240 --> 59:46.540
And what you see in this picture, the colors are changing all the

59:46.540 --> 59:46.880
time.

59:47.280 --> 59:53.860
So, here in black, you have the power demand, the power usage in black

59:53.860 --> 59:54.680
for every day.

59:54.940 --> 59:56.280
That's for the whole year.

59:57.920 --> 01:00:03.900
Here on the baselines, it's only on renewables, so it's biomass,

01:00:04.580 --> 01:00:07.560
geothermal, water, wind, solar.

01:00:08.940 --> 01:00:14.440
And so here, that's biomass, geothermal, energy, and water.

01:00:14.880 --> 01:00:17.460
And then you have in blue here, you have wind.

01:00:17.800 --> 01:00:19.680
In yellow, you have solar.

01:00:20.740 --> 01:00:22.200
And now, what do you see here?

01:00:22.280 --> 01:00:24.760
You see some white space here, for example.

01:00:25.000 --> 01:00:28.220
Quite a significant amount of white space below the black lines.

01:00:28.220 --> 01:00:33.720
White space below the black lines means that, based on the

01:00:33.720 --> 01:00:39.640
predictions, still taking into account the predicted technology

01:00:39.640 --> 01:00:43.760
developments, there will be days where we don't have sufficient power

01:00:43.760 --> 01:00:44.300
generation.

01:00:44.540 --> 01:00:46.820
White space means there's a deficit in power.

01:00:49.180 --> 01:00:53.760
Yellow space above the lines, or colored spaces above the black lines,

01:00:53.880 --> 01:00:55.360
means there's a surplus of energy.

01:00:55.360 --> 01:00:59.160
So there are quite a few days where, at least based on this

01:00:59.160 --> 01:01:01.900
prediction, we will have a surplus of energy.

01:01:03.300 --> 01:01:09.240
And so we have to find out how we can actually make sure that all the

01:01:09.240 --> 01:01:14.220
time, we will have colored spaces below the black lines.

01:01:14.580 --> 01:01:17.440
And for that, we might have to move the black lines in some way.

01:01:17.440 --> 01:01:19.620
That means reduce the demand at certain times.

01:01:20.000 --> 01:01:21.640
Just switch off the power system.

01:01:21.960 --> 01:01:24.760
Then the problems are solved.

01:01:25.240 --> 01:01:26.900
But that's not the solution we have.

01:01:27.460 --> 01:01:29.820
So in some countries, they do that.

01:01:30.620 --> 01:01:32.080
It's not the solution for Germany.

01:01:33.020 --> 01:01:37.440
There are some scientists who actually, years ago, came up.

01:01:38.660 --> 01:01:39.780
I went to conferences.

01:01:40.140 --> 01:01:43.320
There were workshops in North America, in Canada.

01:01:43.320 --> 01:01:46.340
And we were telling about the Energiewende in Germany.

01:01:46.560 --> 01:01:50.380
There were some people from a certain research institution, not KIT,

01:01:51.180 --> 01:01:57.020
who said, Okay, we are almost done with replacing nuclear power plants

01:01:57.020 --> 01:02:02.040
with renewables, because in the last months, the amount of energy that

01:02:02.040 --> 01:02:07.120
we got from wind and solar power, from PV, was even more than what we

01:02:07.120 --> 01:02:09.760
had from nuclear power plants so far.

01:02:09.760 --> 01:02:14.940
And so we can replace nuclear power with wind and PV cell power.

01:02:15.560 --> 01:02:20.200
And they did not talk at all about the problems of fluctuations.

01:02:21.440 --> 01:02:23.160
And something like that is irresponsible.

01:02:23.780 --> 01:02:26.980
In particular, if you tell that to politicians.

01:02:27.180 --> 01:02:31.580
And I also saw people from that same institute, which are very much in

01:02:31.580 --> 01:02:38.220
favor of solar energy, at a political event where people from the

01:02:38.220 --> 01:02:42.560
ministries, and the minister was there, people from that institution

01:02:42.560 --> 01:02:44.120
said, We are almost done.

01:02:44.660 --> 01:02:49.580
We have sufficient generation from wind and photovoltaic systems, and

01:02:49.580 --> 01:02:53.160
so we can, with no problems, replace nuclear power.

01:02:54.100 --> 01:02:59.600
And they completely ignored the problem in their presentation about

01:02:59.600 --> 01:03:02.060
all these fluctuations that we have.

01:03:02.060 --> 01:03:06.740
And here in that diagram, you see that we do have problems that we

01:03:06.740 --> 01:03:07.440
have to cope with.

01:03:07.920 --> 01:03:11.800
So it's by no means solved, and we have to work on that.

01:03:13.020 --> 01:03:16.680
So, some critical remarks on the behavior of some people.

01:03:17.140 --> 01:03:22.280
We always have to look on what we are telling, and whether that is

01:03:22.280 --> 01:03:29.420
responsible, or really based on real technological results or not.

01:03:29.420 --> 01:03:34.680
And now the third problem, after fluctuations and uncertainty, is the

01:03:34.680 --> 01:03:36.960
problem of decentralization.

01:03:37.960 --> 01:03:43.360
So far, we are having a power system which is very centralized.

01:03:43.780 --> 01:03:47.620
There are a few companies who are actually providing the power.

01:03:48.120 --> 01:03:52.280
We have centralized power plants, and we have a system that is

01:03:52.280 --> 01:03:57.440
essentially tree structures, hierarchical, the power is generated, fed

01:03:57.440 --> 01:04:02.340
in at the top, flowing down to the bottom to all the end consumers,

01:04:02.860 --> 01:04:07.100
and so it's a nice system where you have power generation, power

01:04:07.100 --> 01:04:12.380
transmission, power distribution, and then there are all these nice

01:04:12.380 --> 01:04:17.600
power consumers who take the energy that is provided by the utility

01:04:17.600 --> 01:04:19.400
companies.

01:04:19.400 --> 01:04:23.640
And since this is a very stable system that worked very fine so far,

01:04:24.420 --> 01:04:29.940
there is almost nothing known about the current situation at those

01:04:29.940 --> 01:04:33.940
ends, those segments of the distribution grid.

01:04:34.040 --> 01:04:38.800
So this, what you see here, are two screenshots of a tool that is

01:04:38.800 --> 01:04:46.860
simulating the distribution network actually in one small city, small

01:04:46.860 --> 01:04:52.240
town in the Black Forest called Freiamt, and that was our pilot town

01:04:52.240 --> 01:04:54.020
that we had in the project Meragio.

01:04:54.180 --> 01:04:57.800
So this is something which was a result of the project Meragio.

01:05:00.160 --> 01:05:03.120
And so this simulation shows the following.

01:05:03.420 --> 01:05:10.320
It shows the voltage distribution at that segment of the power grid.

01:05:10.320 --> 01:05:16.420
Now this distribution grid here is a rural area, so it's having these

01:05:16.420 --> 01:05:17.360
long segments.

01:05:18.040 --> 01:05:21.060
It's not a meshed structure as you have in an urban area.

01:05:21.220 --> 01:05:25.360
So the topology of the networks is different in urban areas and in

01:05:25.360 --> 01:05:26.200
rural areas.

01:05:26.800 --> 01:05:31.620
And so here we have a typical rural area situation, and also typical

01:05:31.620 --> 01:05:36.360
nowadays for a rural area, that maybe just at the end here you have

01:05:36.360 --> 01:05:43.280
some houses where they have photovoltaic cells on the rooftops, and so

01:05:43.280 --> 01:05:44.520
they are generating power.

01:05:45.240 --> 01:05:50.220
And what is indicated here is the voltage increase due to heavy

01:05:50.220 --> 01:05:52.240
generation of photovoltaic power.

01:05:54.000 --> 01:05:59.840
And now you have this segment of the distribution grid, and you see

01:05:59.840 --> 01:06:03.680
here, I hope you can see that, a few lines are indicated in yellow.

01:06:04.300 --> 01:06:10.020
That means those yellow lines are at their limit capacity, limit

01:06:10.020 --> 01:06:10.500
bandwidth.

01:06:11.180 --> 01:06:17.060
They are not sufficiently thick to actually move all the electricity

01:06:17.060 --> 01:06:20.880
that is generated here into the system.

01:06:21.900 --> 01:06:23.760
So the voltage here has increased.

01:06:23.880 --> 01:06:27.720
That is indicated by this increasingly reddish color.

01:06:28.420 --> 01:06:31.200
The more red it looks, the higher is the voltage.

01:06:31.900 --> 01:06:35.520
If the color is black, it is normal voltage.

01:06:35.740 --> 01:06:38.720
Let's say 240 or 230 volt.

01:06:39.620 --> 01:06:43.220
And it means that at the substation, this here is the substation,

01:06:43.540 --> 01:06:51.300
where power is transformed from medium voltage to low voltage.

01:06:52.100 --> 01:06:58.080
If the distribution system operator is lucky, he has information like

01:06:58.080 --> 01:07:00.860
electronic information on what is happening at the substation.

01:07:01.700 --> 01:07:04.980
Quite often they don't know anything even about the substation.

01:07:05.080 --> 01:07:10.260
They can go there and look it up, and maybe there are some measuring

01:07:10.260 --> 01:07:15.320
instruments which show that, but normally they don't have that

01:07:15.320 --> 01:07:15.820
information.

01:07:16.080 --> 01:07:19.540
If they are lucky, they have it, but even if we assume that they would

01:07:19.540 --> 01:07:23.760
have information on all the situations at the substations, they would

01:07:23.760 --> 01:07:26.400
not see anything about this situation here.

01:07:26.480 --> 01:07:29.840
The only way they would get to know about that would be if some

01:07:29.840 --> 01:07:35.060
customer would call and say, you know, my electric devices are running

01:07:35.060 --> 01:07:35.820
havoc.

01:07:36.160 --> 01:07:40.480
They are just having problems because the voltage is really increased.

01:07:42.320 --> 01:07:47.040
The only way they can get that information nowadays is being informed

01:07:47.040 --> 01:07:49.260
by telephone from some angry customers.

01:07:50.080 --> 01:07:54.260
And unless they have smart metering systems, electronic metering

01:07:54.260 --> 01:07:57.700
systems, that's the only way they could find out about that.

01:07:58.220 --> 01:08:00.540
But so far they don't have that, at least in Germany.

01:08:00.940 --> 01:08:03.000
We don't have a rollout of smart metering systems.

01:08:03.480 --> 01:08:08.920
It just shows that is a situation that is real, just because we have

01:08:08.920 --> 01:08:13.680
power generation from PV cells, and PV cells very often are on

01:08:13.680 --> 01:08:17.040
rooftops of houses, and so we have exactly that situation.

01:08:18.020 --> 01:08:22.220
The normal situation of the distribution system operator would be, he

01:08:22.220 --> 01:08:25.960
has to make sure that he can cope with those situations, so he has to

01:08:25.960 --> 01:08:30.060
enforce the cable, put in more cables, being able to take all that

01:08:30.060 --> 01:08:30.360
power.

01:08:31.860 --> 01:08:38.160
Now there may be other situations on the same segment, where this is a

01:08:38.160 --> 01:08:42.320
situation where you don't have power input from photovoltaic cells,

01:08:42.420 --> 01:08:47.360
maybe it's at night time, but some people have not only solar panels

01:08:47.360 --> 01:08:53.700
on the rooftop, but also electric vehicles on their courtyard, and so

01:08:53.700 --> 01:08:55.760
they would like to recharge their batteries.

01:08:56.740 --> 01:09:01.380
And then they have quite a strong demand for power, more than the

01:09:01.380 --> 01:09:06.300
system currently can actually provide, so again there are some cables

01:09:06.300 --> 01:09:11.220
at their limit bandwidth, and so we have a voltage decrease at that

01:09:11.220 --> 01:09:13.180
segment of the distribution system.

01:09:13.180 --> 01:09:19.980
And so now we have, in one scenario, we have quite a high decrease of

01:09:19.980 --> 01:09:20.580
voltage.

01:09:20.980 --> 01:09:25.420
Here we have a situation where we have an increase in voltage, and now

01:09:25.420 --> 01:09:29.160
this is just, as I said, these are screenshots, this is something that

01:09:29.160 --> 01:09:29.820
is predicted.

01:09:30.600 --> 01:09:31.320
It will occur.

01:09:32.260 --> 01:09:37.820
Now, if you know about those predictions, and if you can make sure

01:09:37.820 --> 01:09:40.680
that this happens at the same time, you are fine.

01:09:40.680 --> 01:09:47.300
Because then you can balance the high demand from electric vehicles

01:09:47.300 --> 01:09:52.260
with the high power generation from photovoltaic panels, if it occurs

01:09:52.260 --> 01:09:53.160
at the same time.

01:09:54.660 --> 01:09:58.680
And if it occurs on the same segment of the distribution network, it

01:09:58.680 --> 01:10:04.340
doesn't help if on one part of the distribution system you have high

01:10:04.340 --> 01:10:08.560
generation, because there they have the photovoltaic cells, and two

01:10:08.560 --> 01:10:13.420
streets further on, they have, like on a different segment, they have

01:10:13.420 --> 01:10:18.420
the electric vehicles, because at the substations, this is not seen.

01:10:18.940 --> 01:10:23.180
And that means if it's not seen, this power generation here is not,

01:10:23.300 --> 01:10:26.820
would not, like if these would be connected in some way, it wouldn't

01:10:26.820 --> 01:10:30.840
help to have that power generation here to even out that voltage drop

01:10:30.840 --> 01:10:31.260
there.

01:10:31.260 --> 01:10:35.180
The only way you can deal with that, or you can balance out those

01:10:35.180 --> 01:10:38.160
things, would be to have it on the same segment.

01:10:39.660 --> 01:10:44.060
And for that, you need information on what kind of technology is

01:10:44.060 --> 01:10:46.400
available on those sites.

01:10:46.780 --> 01:10:51.520
And if you know things about that, you can try to control the use of

01:10:51.520 --> 01:10:56.560
batteries, and you cannot control really the photovoltaic panels,

01:10:56.720 --> 01:10:58.880
except for switching them off.

01:10:59.060 --> 01:11:02.960
You can take them out of operation, that's what you can always do, but

01:11:02.960 --> 01:11:05.860
you cannot say, I would like to have the power generation later,

01:11:06.380 --> 01:11:10.700
unless I have stationary batteries for intermediate storage.

01:11:11.820 --> 01:11:17.000
So, this is an essential problem, and it shows that it is a problem

01:11:17.000 --> 01:11:19.140
due to decentralization.

01:11:19.140 --> 01:11:24.520
Decentralization means having power generation in the low voltage area

01:11:24.520 --> 01:11:27.660
of the power grid, which was not designed for that.

01:11:28.520 --> 01:11:31.780
Our power system is designed such that power generation occurs

01:11:31.780 --> 01:11:37.960
centrally, with central power plants, and it is transmitted at high

01:11:37.960 --> 01:11:43.040
voltage, and then gradually transformed down to low voltage and

01:11:43.040 --> 01:11:43.800
consumed there.

01:11:44.440 --> 01:11:47.580
And all of a sudden, we have a situation where we have power

01:11:47.580 --> 01:11:52.900
generation locally in the low voltage area, and it doesn't help if we

01:11:52.900 --> 01:11:57.320
have many power generation units on some of those segments.

01:11:57.700 --> 01:12:01.780
So, some people say, we have these nice ideas about virtual power

01:12:01.780 --> 01:12:05.940
plants, where we have many local, let's say, combined heat and power

01:12:05.940 --> 01:12:11.540
plants in the basements of many houses, and if, let's say, at

01:12:11.540 --> 01:12:15.360
Stuttgart there is a high demand for power, and at Karlsruhe they have

01:12:15.360 --> 01:12:19.700
all these nice combined heat and power plants, they just all generate

01:12:19.700 --> 01:12:22.880
power and provide the power for those people at Stuttgart.

01:12:23.320 --> 01:12:25.900
But that would mean you have to transform, or you have to move the

01:12:25.900 --> 01:12:31.620
power that way into the higher level systems of the power grid,

01:12:31.620 --> 01:12:37.380
transform them to higher voltage, but the transformers are built for

01:12:37.380 --> 01:12:41.320
transforming them from higher voltage to lower voltage.

01:12:41.660 --> 01:12:43.140
They're not built for the opposite.

01:12:44.020 --> 01:12:45.780
You can do that, but it's not efficient.

01:12:46.580 --> 01:12:50.780
You have some electrical problems there, and so it doesn't really

01:12:50.780 --> 01:12:51.180
work.

01:12:51.580 --> 01:12:55.700
You can certainly just sell the power on the market, but it has to be

01:12:55.700 --> 01:13:01.300
in some way, it should be able to do that, or to help out really

01:13:01.300 --> 01:13:03.280
physically the power grid.

01:13:03.740 --> 01:13:07.000
And for that you have to look at the topology of the grid, where

01:13:07.000 --> 01:13:11.080
actually those power generators are located, in order to find out

01:13:11.080 --> 01:13:15.080
whether that's a real contribution to stabilizing the grid.

01:13:16.120 --> 01:13:17.840
So this is a real problem.

01:13:18.000 --> 01:13:20.120
All of a sudden we have a completely different system.

01:13:20.120 --> 01:13:25.960
And this is also some reason why our utility companies and the energy

01:13:25.960 --> 01:13:29.740
industry is so fond of having offshore wind parks.

01:13:29.960 --> 01:13:34.300
One reason is that they have more steady wind on the offshore wind

01:13:34.300 --> 01:13:35.460
parks on the sea.

01:13:35.760 --> 01:13:40.940
But the major reason is that if you have offshore wind parks, you have

01:13:40.940 --> 01:13:46.380
power generation, large power generation, which can be fed into a

01:13:46.380 --> 01:13:50.300
system that has not been changed structurally.

01:13:50.660 --> 01:13:54.100
You still have power in feed at the highest level, the highest power

01:13:54.100 --> 01:13:57.760
level, and then you can transmit and distribute in the normal way.

01:13:58.180 --> 01:13:59.820
You don't need to change the structures.

01:14:00.620 --> 01:14:05.180
If we have the same amount of power generation onshore, if we have it

01:14:05.180 --> 01:14:09.300
distributed everywhere, and that's a problem, because all of a sudden

01:14:09.300 --> 01:14:15.180
all those who are organizing the system so far need new ways of doing

01:14:15.180 --> 01:14:17.840
that, and many of them will run out of business.

01:14:18.660 --> 01:14:19.960
And this is what they don't like.

01:14:20.440 --> 01:14:24.740
And so since they are very influential, politically we get support for

01:14:24.740 --> 01:14:26.260
central power generation.

01:14:26.960 --> 01:14:32.780
There's another turn or attack that we see in the moment that the

01:14:32.780 --> 01:14:39.820
regulation just now is being done in a way to discourage people from

01:14:39.820 --> 01:14:44.080
generating power from combined heat and power plants locally, because

01:14:44.080 --> 01:14:50.280
that will pose problems to those who did the traditional business from

01:14:50.280 --> 01:14:51.560
centralized power plants.

01:14:51.560 --> 01:14:57.640
Although to actually manage the Energiewende, it would be perfect to

01:14:57.640 --> 01:14:58.180
have that.

01:14:58.680 --> 01:15:03.980
But that's a problem of who actually is determining what will happen.

01:15:04.120 --> 01:15:08.160
Those who have been the traditional players or those who try to get

01:15:08.160 --> 01:15:09.640
into the new situation.

01:15:09.880 --> 01:15:10.980
Very difficult situation.

01:15:11.200 --> 01:15:15.280
So you see, telling you about motivation, why we are active here,

01:15:15.440 --> 01:15:21.560
always has also to do with how the political world around us is

01:15:21.560 --> 01:15:25.280
developing, because that has to do with what kind of incentives do we

01:15:25.280 --> 01:15:27.800
get to modify the systems that we have.

01:15:28.500 --> 01:15:31.160
Okay, so three major challenges.

01:15:31.440 --> 01:15:34.960
Fluctuations, uncertainty, decentralization.

01:15:35.560 --> 01:15:37.040
That's what we have to cope with.

01:15:37.940 --> 01:15:42.360
Here again, another point of fluctuations on a very local basis.

01:15:42.820 --> 01:15:44.640
What kind of fluctuations do you see here?

01:15:44.640 --> 01:15:49.320
Here again, this voltage fluctuations on a very local area.

01:15:49.680 --> 01:15:57.160
So if we measure the voltage in our house, this has been measured at

01:15:57.160 --> 01:16:02.040
the FZI or PV power panels.

01:16:02.700 --> 01:16:05.780
So what you see here in yellow is PV power.

01:16:06.060 --> 01:16:08.460
In blue, you see the voltage.

01:16:09.280 --> 01:16:14.380
So how much power actually is generated from the PV cells on the

01:16:14.380 --> 01:16:14.780
rooftop?

01:16:15.460 --> 01:16:17.900
You see that's the yellow line.

01:16:18.160 --> 01:16:23.380
It's fluctuating quite a bit, because there has been quite a bit of

01:16:23.380 --> 01:16:26.780
clouds on the sky that day.

01:16:26.780 --> 01:16:32.880
And you see that the voltage fluctuations here are quite in sync,

01:16:33.600 --> 01:16:39.460
synchronized with the changes in power generation.

01:16:40.480 --> 01:16:49.660
And so this is just from PV panels having five kilowatt peak power

01:16:49.660 --> 01:16:50.180
generation.

01:16:50.180 --> 01:16:55.240
If you have many of them on the same segment of the power grid, you

01:16:55.240 --> 01:16:56.700
might have even more fluctuations.

01:16:56.860 --> 01:16:58.600
So the fluctuations here are not that large.

01:16:58.900 --> 01:17:06.680
Like this here is at 225 volt, this is at 232, so it's just a 7 volt

01:17:06.680 --> 01:17:07.260
difference.

01:17:07.760 --> 01:17:14.220
But if you have higher or larger capacity PV panels, a higher amount

01:17:14.220 --> 01:17:19.960
of power that is generated or not generated, you get higher effects on

01:17:19.960 --> 01:17:20.920
the voltage locally.

01:17:21.700 --> 01:17:25.700
So the question is, how do you respond to that?

01:17:25.880 --> 01:17:27.220
You can respond in two ways.

01:17:27.660 --> 01:17:33.860
You could say, I try to follow those deviations by modifying in some

01:17:33.860 --> 01:17:36.280
way or adjusting the load, which will be difficult.

01:17:36.980 --> 01:17:43.660
Some way would be, well, I build my devices in a very robust way, so

01:17:43.660 --> 01:17:47.740
that they don't suffer from having these voltage changes.

01:17:47.980 --> 01:17:49.800
Might be a reasonable thing to do.

01:17:50.260 --> 01:17:55.900
You could also say, I just store the energy somewhere in some storage

01:17:55.900 --> 01:17:58.300
tank, or electricity in a storage tank.

01:17:58.700 --> 01:18:03.000
Might have a battery for that or some capacitor or whatever you might

01:18:03.000 --> 01:18:03.320
have.

01:18:04.140 --> 01:18:06.500
And in that way, even out those fluctuations.

01:18:07.620 --> 01:18:11.620
Might be a very intelligent way of doing that, a technical way of

01:18:11.620 --> 01:18:12.240
doing that.

01:18:12.240 --> 01:18:18.640
And so that would be completely like power engineering, taking a

01:18:18.640 --> 01:18:23.000
different device for storing energy, and then evening out those

01:18:23.000 --> 01:18:23.500
fluctuations.

01:18:24.120 --> 01:18:25.760
Then you have a steady power supply.

01:18:27.260 --> 01:18:29.680
So many different ways of responding to that.

01:18:29.900 --> 01:18:34.840
And one way would be to in some way influence the demand inside the

01:18:34.840 --> 01:18:35.120
house.

01:18:35.660 --> 01:18:39.340
But certainly at that small time scale, it doesn't make sense.

01:18:40.620 --> 01:18:46.960
So, what we have to do is balancing demand and supply, because the

01:18:46.960 --> 01:18:51.260
problem is that electricity cannot be stored inside the grid.

01:18:52.100 --> 01:18:56.480
If we could store the energy inside the grid, we wouldn't have to talk

01:18:56.480 --> 01:19:00.540
about balancing demand and supply, because if there is higher demand,

01:19:01.220 --> 01:19:04.320
maybe we have some storage, can take it from there.

01:19:04.320 --> 01:19:09.780
If we have higher supply, we just put it in the storage, store it in

01:19:09.780 --> 01:19:10.880
the grid, that would be fine.

01:19:10.940 --> 01:19:12.300
This would be a perfect system.

01:19:12.440 --> 01:19:17.200
If we had a distribution system which locked large tanks in between,

01:19:17.680 --> 01:19:21.560
then we would have no problems with balancing demand and supply.

01:19:21.940 --> 01:19:24.520
This is what we know, for example, from the gas networks.

01:19:24.520 --> 01:19:34.600
Natural gas networks is having large storage devices which can store

01:19:34.600 --> 01:19:41.340
the gas, and so you can put in gas all the time and fill the storage

01:19:41.340 --> 01:19:47.440
tanks, and then simultaneously you might have some demand, smaller

01:19:47.440 --> 01:19:48.600
demand, higher demand.

01:19:48.600 --> 01:19:54.400
You don't need explicit control that demand and supply all the time

01:19:54.400 --> 01:19:55.480
are at the same level.

01:19:56.980 --> 01:20:02.100
And this immediately shows, depending on what kind of energy we are

01:20:02.100 --> 01:20:06.840
talking about, if we talk about electricity or about gas, both are

01:20:06.840 --> 01:20:11.900
forms of energy, we have to deal with completely different problems.

01:20:11.900 --> 01:20:17.520
And it might be interesting in some way if we have no flexibility or

01:20:17.520 --> 01:20:21.800
no storage capacity in the electricity network, maybe we can in some

01:20:21.800 --> 01:20:27.960
way transform electricity into gas and store it in the form of gas,

01:20:28.120 --> 01:20:30.340
because there we have those storage capacities.

01:20:30.880 --> 01:20:35.020
So there we have a lot of robustness, high degree of robustness in the

01:20:35.020 --> 01:20:40.520
gas network, and so if we could utilize that for coping with problems

01:20:40.520 --> 01:20:45.860
that we just looked at in the electricity system, that might lead to

01:20:45.860 --> 01:20:46.900
some solutions.

01:20:47.200 --> 01:20:50.080
And this is one of the roadmaps that I actually followed.

01:20:50.720 --> 01:20:55.820
So the traditional system is demand cannot be controlled, that's the

01:20:55.820 --> 01:20:59.860
current assumption, and electricity cannot be stored.

01:21:00.200 --> 01:21:01.380
This is a physical fact.

01:21:01.380 --> 01:21:05.800
At least cannot be stored, not in principle, we have batteries, we

01:21:05.800 --> 01:21:08.600
have capacitors and so on, but it cannot be stored in the grid.

01:21:09.220 --> 01:21:12.340
If we just have transmission lines, we cannot store electricity in the

01:21:12.340 --> 01:21:13.640
transmission and distribution lines.

01:21:15.060 --> 01:21:20.780
And for that we have one principle, that is the principle that supply

01:21:20.780 --> 01:21:21.940
follows demand.

01:21:21.940 --> 01:21:29.340
The supply is occurring only in the top level of that system, at the

01:21:29.340 --> 01:21:32.940
ultra -high voltage system, where here I only indicated high voltage,

01:21:33.060 --> 01:21:36.420
medium voltage, low voltage, actually there's the fourth layer of

01:21:36.420 --> 01:21:41.920
ultra -high voltage, of very high, ultra-high voltage, and the demand

01:21:41.920 --> 01:21:47.020
is always at the bottom, and it's sufficient to modify the supply,

01:21:47.020 --> 01:21:52.720
adjust that to the current need, and how do you know about the current

01:21:52.720 --> 01:21:53.120
need?

01:21:53.700 --> 01:21:58.120
There is one, I think, no I don't have it here, I didn't write it

01:21:58.120 --> 01:22:06.980
here, so what you can look at is the frequency, and the frequency

01:22:06.980 --> 01:22:14.020
usually is 50 hertz, and so if the frequency of 50 hertz means

01:22:14.020 --> 01:22:19.360
everything is fine, it's balanced, and if the frequency is going up,

01:22:19.480 --> 01:22:23.540
you have a surplus in power, if the frequency is going down, you have

01:22:23.540 --> 01:22:30.020
a deficit in power, and so you just have to do something if you notice

01:22:30.020 --> 01:22:35.860
a change in frequency, and the nice thing is that this is a global

01:22:35.860 --> 01:22:43.100
signal, and since it is a global signal, it means that you can measure

01:22:43.100 --> 01:22:49.000
it at any point in the network, you measure the frequency, almost at

01:22:49.000 --> 01:22:53.580
every place you have exactly the same measurement, and so you don't

01:22:53.580 --> 01:22:59.420
have to know why and where you currently have a surplus or deficit in

01:22:59.420 --> 01:23:05.680
power in the higher levels, you see the frequency, and you can respond

01:23:05.680 --> 01:23:10.260
just to the changes in frequency, and increase power generation or

01:23:10.260 --> 01:23:13.960
decrease power generation, and this is called spinning reserve,

01:23:14.120 --> 01:23:18.580
because the large turbines which are generating power are spinning

01:23:18.580 --> 01:23:24.480
around all the time, and so you can increase the power in order to

01:23:24.480 --> 01:23:28.640
speed them up, or decrease the power generation, and then they will

01:23:28.640 --> 01:23:34.720
slow down, and in this way maintain this frequency of 50 Hz, which is

01:23:34.720 --> 01:23:38.620
essential to have that frequency, because there are quite a few

01:23:38.620 --> 01:23:43.340
devices which need to operate at a fixed frequency, if you change

01:23:43.340 --> 01:23:46.180
that, certain technical equipment will get damaged.

01:23:47.220 --> 01:23:49.980
And so this is an important point, to have that stable frequency, but

01:23:49.980 --> 01:23:55.520
it's also something which is ingenious, to use that signal, because in

01:23:55.520 --> 01:23:59.740
that way you don't need any communication, you just have to look at

01:23:59.740 --> 01:24:04.960
the frequency, and you can respond to that with your device, like

01:24:04.960 --> 01:24:10.560
primary or secondary spinning reserve, like if you're operating such a

01:24:10.560 --> 01:24:18.040
device, having these rotating masses in the power generation plants,

01:24:18.780 --> 01:24:22.400
and you can respond to the changes in frequency.

01:24:23.040 --> 01:24:26.720
A perfect, ingenious system, because you don't need communication, you

01:24:26.720 --> 01:24:29.720
just do it, on a very short timescale.

01:24:29.840 --> 01:24:30.400
You have a question?

01:24:34.650 --> 01:24:39.150
More than 50 Hz means you have a surplus of energy, more than 50 Hz

01:24:39.150 --> 01:24:43.450
means the turbines, or these rotating masses are spinning around

01:24:43.450 --> 01:24:50.030
faster, that's why you have a surplus of energy, so you have less

01:24:50.030 --> 01:24:53.950
demand, and so they are spinning around faster, you have to reduce

01:24:53.950 --> 01:24:58.250
that, so you will reduce the amount of power that you actually put

01:24:58.250 --> 01:24:58.930
into the system.

01:24:59.790 --> 01:25:04.370
And if the frequency is going down, it means you have not sufficient

01:25:04.370 --> 01:25:09.850
power to actually make sure that they are running at a stable speed,

01:25:10.030 --> 01:25:12.450
and so you have to increase the power generation.

01:25:13.270 --> 01:25:20.470
That is spinning reserve, that is reserve means, the reserve in that

01:25:20.470 --> 01:25:25.670
case means that you have a certain reserve of functionality, or of

01:25:25.670 --> 01:25:32.310
some actions that you may take to balance out the system.

01:25:32.630 --> 01:25:37.850
If you have an unbalanced system, you can do something to get it in

01:25:37.850 --> 01:25:38.490
balance again.

01:25:38.490 --> 01:25:42.310
And that's the reserve capacity that you have, and you get that

01:25:42.310 --> 01:25:47.290
reserve capacity, because some companies who actually operate those

01:25:47.290 --> 01:25:51.770
power plants have made a contract with the transmission system

01:25:51.770 --> 01:25:58.090
operator, and this contract, which is based on some kind of

01:25:58.090 --> 01:26:02.710
competition for offering some service like that, you get the contract

01:26:02.710 --> 01:26:11.230
that says at any time you are willing and capable both, willing and

01:26:11.230 --> 01:26:16.610
capable to provide that extra energy, or that means either increase

01:26:16.610 --> 01:26:20.590
the power generation or decrease the power generation, such that you

01:26:20.590 --> 01:26:22.810
can stabilize to some extent.

01:26:23.190 --> 01:26:28.510
There are certain limits on some constraints on how much capacity you

01:26:28.510 --> 01:26:29.150
have to offer.

01:26:29.150 --> 01:26:32.270
That will be covered at a later point in the course.

01:26:43.090 --> 01:26:45.570
Maybe I will come back to that topic later on.

01:26:45.750 --> 01:26:48.350
That will be some solution, but there are many other alternatives to

01:26:48.350 --> 01:26:48.570
that.

01:26:49.530 --> 01:26:53.430
We'll come back to the problem of how we actually transform power into

01:26:53.430 --> 01:26:54.510
gas, or might do that.

01:26:54.510 --> 01:26:56.850
Okay, so this is... yeah?

01:27:05.050 --> 01:27:06.230
That's a different level.

01:27:06.530 --> 01:27:10.750
The primary reserve is to respond immediately, but only for a limited

01:27:10.750 --> 01:27:16.810
amount of time, maybe for 5 to 15 minutes or something, and then some

01:27:16.810 --> 01:27:18.350
other device has to take over.

01:27:19.150 --> 01:27:23.530
So maybe that a certain power plant is switched off for what kind of

01:27:23.530 --> 01:27:23.890
reasons.

01:27:24.070 --> 01:27:27.890
Something occurred there, had to be taken out of the system, then we

01:27:27.890 --> 01:27:29.650
have to respond immediately to that.

01:27:30.250 --> 01:27:32.810
And this is done by that spinning reserve, but only for a limited

01:27:32.810 --> 01:27:35.830
amount of time, and then somebody else has to take over.

01:27:36.290 --> 01:27:39.430
But somebody else means maybe some other power plant has to be

01:27:39.430 --> 01:27:40.090
switched on.

01:27:40.590 --> 01:27:41.690
This takes some time.

01:27:41.750 --> 01:27:45.770
They have a ramp up time before they actually can provide full power.

01:27:46.330 --> 01:27:48.270
And this has to be bridged in some way.

01:27:48.370 --> 01:27:49.870
This is done by the primary reserve.

01:27:50.490 --> 01:27:52.470
And then the secondary reserve takes over.

01:27:52.470 --> 01:27:57.650
And if it takes even longer, you have minute reserve, you have hour

01:27:57.650 --> 01:28:00.550
reserve, and even longer reserve.

01:28:00.670 --> 01:28:05.990
So it's a cascaded system, which is always taken over, like the lower

01:28:05.990 --> 01:28:10.350
level is taking over from the higher level after some time.

01:28:10.650 --> 01:28:16.330
But you have more time to organize this taking over, and so that can

01:28:16.330 --> 01:28:19.890
be done by other means, and there you can actually communicate who

01:28:19.890 --> 01:28:22.250
will take that job to do that.

01:28:23.530 --> 01:28:26.270
Okay, so that's the traditional system.

01:28:26.430 --> 01:28:32.490
It's a perfect system based on the current or the traditional energy

01:28:32.490 --> 01:28:32.970
network.

01:28:33.810 --> 01:28:38.750
Now, the future system, as I indicated, is looking differently.

01:28:39.470 --> 01:28:43.390
The future system there, that's what we see here, and all of a sudden

01:28:43.390 --> 01:28:46.030
we have supply at the low voltage level.

01:28:46.370 --> 01:28:47.170
That's a problem.

01:28:48.110 --> 01:28:51.530
It means we have a potential reversal of power flow.

01:28:52.070 --> 01:28:56.990
We have only partially controllable and decentralized supply.

01:28:57.510 --> 01:28:58.550
Completely different.

01:28:59.750 --> 01:29:04.290
And so the new principle in some way must be that demand has to follow

01:29:04.290 --> 01:29:04.830
supply.

01:29:05.190 --> 01:29:08.150
Something so far was assumed to be impossible.

01:29:09.730 --> 01:29:13.010
But somehow we have to deal with that challenge.

01:29:13.910 --> 01:29:17.930
And if it turns out it doesn't work, like recently, just a week ago,

01:29:18.570 --> 01:29:25.590
or it was last week, we had a meeting with the municipal, the

01:29:25.590 --> 01:29:30.030
Stadtwerke Karlsruhe, and they said, when I talked about we need

01:29:30.030 --> 01:29:33.830
flexibility in power demand, they said, you are kidding.

01:29:33.830 --> 01:29:38.670
The attempts to actually re-educate people have always failed.

01:29:38.830 --> 01:29:40.430
You will never be able to do that.

01:29:41.090 --> 01:29:45.010
If that's the final finding, if that would be the final finding, that

01:29:45.010 --> 01:29:48.790
we cannot control the demand, then we really have a problem.

01:29:49.250 --> 01:29:52.890
But we are very confident that we can do that, not re-educate people,

01:29:53.370 --> 01:29:58.310
but provide sufficient technology and incentives to actually do that.

01:29:58.310 --> 01:30:05.210
That demand will actually become more flexible, and this is what is

01:30:05.210 --> 01:30:05.750
required.

01:30:06.210 --> 01:30:11.850
Now I look at my watch, it's 3.35, we have to make a short break.

01:30:12.530 --> 01:30:14.550
So that's the first part.

