WEBVTT 00:09.120 --> 00:15.480 And I think we'll just start, I would very much like to ask Mr. Eiter 00:15.480 --> 00:20.320 first, so on the many questions of complexity that we have already 00:20.320 --> 00:26.520 seen from rules and non-rules, was there anything from your point of 00:26.520 --> 00:29.800 view that was not addressed? 00:29.800 --> 00:34.220 I think you could of course address a lot more, but the main 00:34.220 --> 00:41.180 structures of this complexity were, I think, very well represented by 00:41.180 --> 00:41.860 Mr. Dannemann. 00:42.380 --> 00:47.120 Or would you also prioritize something from the questions that have 00:47.120 --> 00:48.480 been listed there? 00:49.440 --> 00:52.080 I think Mr. Dannemann has already presented these different facets 00:52.080 --> 00:58.680 very comprehensively and very compactly, which we can observe. 00:59.120 --> 01:03.400 If we look at this phenomenon of complexity, then you can basically 01:03.400 --> 01:05.260 describe it in different facets. 01:06.720 --> 01:08.620 And it actually starts with something that can be characterized as 01:08.620 --> 01:11.320 objective complexity. 01:12.760 --> 01:16.960 For example, you compare a single-family home with a skyscraper. 01:18.400 --> 01:21.380 The construction of a skyscraper is more complex than that of a single 01:21.380 --> 01:23.600 -family home, no matter who would do it individually. 01:24.740 --> 01:30.240 But in terms of complexity, you have to mirror that with something 01:30.240 --> 01:32.020 that we call relative complexity. 01:33.540 --> 01:37.360 There are company organizations that can build a single-family home 01:37.360 --> 01:41.140 very well, but are not suitable for building a skyscraper, a 01:41.140 --> 01:41.380 skyscraper. 01:42.180 --> 01:43.940 But there are organizations that can do that. 01:44.920 --> 01:50.420 And when comparing the lunar landing, the Brexit that I carried out, 01:51.120 --> 01:54.840 the following phenomenon was interesting, which also surprised me. 01:55.520 --> 01:58.400 That was the subjective complexity. 01:58.920 --> 02:02.640 And we find that many projects, and in a way I have approached the 02:02.640 --> 02:07.940 topic of Brexit from the facet of the project, that we keep finding 02:07.940 --> 02:13.040 that the actors make the mistake of underestimating the complexity of 02:13.040 --> 02:15.920 what is to be done, the objective complexity. 02:17.520 --> 02:21.640 So you think you don't have to build a skyscraper, but maybe a single 02:21.640 --> 02:22.200 -family home. 02:23.040 --> 02:28.480 And on the side of your own skills, your own skills are systematically 02:28.480 --> 02:29.480 overestimated. 02:30.280 --> 02:34.120 So you assume that you have all the necessary prerequisites, 02:34.280 --> 02:36.260 resources, qualitatively, quantitatively. 02:36.820 --> 02:38.520 And in reality, this is not the case. 02:39.400 --> 02:43.400 And in the case of Brexit, we see exactly this phenomenon at the 02:43.400 --> 02:43.620 beginning. 02:44.320 --> 02:49.760 And the whole thing is then worsened by a fourth dimension, which is 02:49.760 --> 02:51.100 the dynamic complexity. 02:51.440 --> 02:52.380 I described it that way. 02:52.460 --> 02:53.780 Imagine it like a pair of scissors. 02:55.620 --> 03:00.100 And at the beginning of 1961, NASA also did not have the ability to 03:00.100 --> 03:00.540 fly to the moon. 03:01.360 --> 03:02.620 So the pair of scissors was very open. 03:03.200 --> 03:06.700 But NASA, for example, has systematically, through the individual 03:06.700 --> 03:12.880 missions, one astronaut, two astronauts, three astronauts, earth 03:12.880 --> 03:14.860 orbit, moon orbit, and so on. 03:15.560 --> 03:16.940 The pair of scissors was systematically closed. 03:17.680 --> 03:22.920 And what we see with Brexit is that in a certain way the actors manage 03:22.920 --> 03:26.580 to develop their skills a little bit, but at the same time the 03:26.580 --> 03:28.800 complexity of the pair of scissors goes up on the other side. 03:29.800 --> 03:33.520 This is what we also heard in the lecture by Professor Dannemann, that 03:33.520 --> 03:35.740 new aspects of difficulties always occur. 03:35.740 --> 03:39.000 Because the number of contracts that have to be completed alone, that 03:39.000 --> 03:40.700 was definitely not known to the acting people. 03:43.500 --> 03:47.820 That was basically what I tried to characterize, that we have 03:47.820 --> 03:49.840 different dimensions of complexity. 03:50.340 --> 03:54.780 And what we see today, almost every day, is that a new facet is added. 03:55.520 --> 03:59.520 And it basically remains open to see how this pair of scissors, which 03:59.520 --> 04:04.180 has come apart, can be closed again in the next steps. 04:05.320 --> 04:08.740 So that's the observation I want to make first. 04:11.200 --> 04:16.560 I would like to ask the question to both of you. 04:16.560 --> 04:27.060 So, especially in this analogy, if the population knew and understood, 04:27.380 --> 04:34.140 even just a part of this dynamic complexity, would we have a different 04:34.140 --> 04:37.860 result in this referendum? 04:38.100 --> 04:39.020 And I would also agree with one. 04:39.020 --> 04:47.660 I think what we also see, based on the divisions and what is happening 04:47.660 --> 04:56.140 at the moment, is actually what I had implied in my words, that we can 04:56.140 --> 05:06.060 ask ourselves democratically, is it at all responsible to make a 05:06.060 --> 05:12.800 referendum on a topic that is so complex and that would be 05:12.800 --> 05:19.080 emotionalized, where it would actually be black or white, is that at 05:19.080 --> 05:25.020 all, and especially in the UK, with representative democracy and 05:25.020 --> 05:31.740 parliamentarianism, which has actually, for many, many centuries, also 05:31.740 --> 05:35.740 been used as an example of self-image. 05:38.640 --> 05:40.060 Is it responsible? 05:41.020 --> 05:41.960 Complex questions. 05:42.200 --> 05:48.560 But first of all, what do you think, how would people who voted, or 05:48.560 --> 05:54.480 how could you have shown them that it is a high house and not a family 05:54.480 --> 06:02.100 home, whatever we are talking about, or is it simply democratically 06:02.100 --> 06:06.400 theoretical, anyway questionable at all, to ask such complex questions 06:06.400 --> 06:10.080 in the sense of a yes or no question? 06:12.440 --> 06:14.060 I think you can. 06:14.160 --> 06:20.940 There was also the vote in 1975, that the European Community, or the 06:20.940 --> 06:23.040 three communities, should remain a member. 06:23.620 --> 06:28.380 I think the mistake that was made on the part of the government, which 06:28.380 --> 06:35.260 drove this vote, was not to have a plan for the case that the vote 06:35.260 --> 06:40.140 would be lost and which put too much emphasis on that the Brits would 06:40.140 --> 06:44.320 vote for their wallet and had no other plans. 06:44.620 --> 06:45.640 I think that was the mistake. 06:46.220 --> 06:47.620 You can also oppose the Brexiteers. 06:49.240 --> 06:51.980 It was wrong of you not to have a plan for the exit. 06:51.980 --> 06:55.580 First of all, on the part of the Brexiteers, the complexity was very 06:55.580 --> 06:57.780 clear and not recognized. 06:57.860 --> 07:01.040 Secondly, it was conscious, because you knew that if you spread it out 07:01.040 --> 07:06.260 in the economic area, customs union, this and that, and suddenly 07:06.260 --> 07:10.460 holiday homes in France are no longer so easily accessible, the 07:10.460 --> 07:12.660 election might actually have gone differently. 07:14.780 --> 07:20.300 Theoretically, I find it very interesting how the country, which is 07:20.300 --> 07:24.660 mostly based on a parliament, the lower house is the only elected one 07:24.660 --> 07:25.300 in the UK. 07:25.740 --> 07:28.120 The prime minister is not actually elected, Boris Johnson was not 07:28.120 --> 07:31.000 elected, the queen was not elected, the upper house was not elected, 07:31.460 --> 07:32.380 the lower house is. 07:33.200 --> 07:38.340 And now we have a new dictator. 07:38.800 --> 07:44.520 The dictator is the referendum of 2016, the will of the people of 17.4 07:44.520 --> 07:44.780 million. 07:44.920 --> 07:47.220 That's what's being worked on right now. 07:47.220 --> 07:52.020 But I think the lesson to be learned is that if you ask such a 07:52.020 --> 07:57.560 question, you have to present the consequences somehow better 07:57.560 --> 07:57.960 beforehand. 07:58.340 --> 08:00.860 You also have to have a plan for both possible outcomes. 08:03.420 --> 08:11.500 So I think that in today's times of digital disinformation, 08:11.920 --> 08:16.700 information is looking for which term to choose, of fake news. 08:17.880 --> 08:21.960 We have entered a phase in which you have to think very carefully 08:23.240 --> 08:25.100 whether to hold such referendums. 08:27.420 --> 08:35.000 On the one hand, within a few moments, a counter-statement is made 08:35.000 --> 08:36.880 What is right now, what is wrong? 08:37.760 --> 08:41.500 We realize, recently there was this report, Who watches the Daily 08:41.500 --> 08:41.820 Show? 08:42.140 --> 08:43.480 Also a demographic development. 08:43.980 --> 08:46.400 We have younger people who are less and less informed. 08:47.120 --> 08:50.320 So we have a shift in terms of information channels. 08:51.660 --> 08:57.860 And there is a trend, a certain distortion, which I think can be 08:57.860 --> 09:05.160 observed, that a simple, clear, easy, positive answer or statement 09:05.160 --> 09:09.440 finds more followers than one that goes into the expert's room a lot, 09:09.440 --> 09:11.540 explains things in a complicated way. 09:11.720 --> 09:14.420 But then you still have to read a hundred pages so you know what 09:14.420 --> 09:15.300 you're getting into. 09:16.160 --> 09:17.580 It's basically like this. 09:18.340 --> 09:22.860 Who reads all his insurance conditions? 09:23.020 --> 09:25.320 Who reads all the user conditions when he sets the hook? 09:26.600 --> 09:27.880 Nobody does that anymore. 09:27.940 --> 09:31.400 And that is basically not solved by political decisions that are made. 09:31.960 --> 09:35.960 Then someone comes and says, we're going out now, and the EU is 09:35.960 --> 09:39.360 responsible for crooked bananas and all sorts of things, and we 09:39.360 --> 09:44.600 promise you a rich future, Britannia rules the waves, and so on. 09:44.900 --> 09:49.460 And then they come and say, yes, and then we can, and the customs, and 09:49.460 --> 09:50.460 this and that. 09:50.920 --> 09:54.220 That's not very appealing to many voters either. 09:55.680 --> 09:59.140 So that means that we probably already have a referendum on this 09:59.140 --> 10:02.060 issue, yes or no. 10:02.580 --> 10:04.440 Then you would actually have to go back. 10:04.680 --> 10:08.780 You mentioned it, but if you want to get informed about social media 10:08.780 --> 10:13.840 and the completely different ways of behaving, then we also have to 10:13.840 --> 10:18.060 ask, and then I will of course come back to the UK, so you really have 10:18.060 --> 10:21.280 to ask how to place political education these days. 10:22.160 --> 10:26.500 Does that also have to be part of school education, of university 10:26.500 --> 10:27.080 education? 10:28.140 --> 10:30.680 I would very much advocate that. 10:30.680 --> 10:34.240 I'm not just a moderator today, but also a bit of a discussant. 10:35.560 --> 10:38.980 But I think that's something that we may not only see from this 10:38.980 --> 10:39.580 matter. 10:42.700 --> 10:52.640 Maybe before we really get into the questions, how we, so on the basis 10:52.640 --> 10:56.940 of what you have suggested, how we see the further development. 10:56.940 --> 11:00.860 What has Europe also done wrong? 11:01.480 --> 11:07.540 I mean, it's not like in the last three and a half years Europe hasn't 11:07.540 --> 11:12.320 succeeded in changing the way people think in the UK. 11:15.700 --> 11:17.380 Would you have had to do more? 11:20.080 --> 11:25.520 apart from the questions about how to regulate in detail, what is 11:25.520 --> 11:34.580 allowed and what is not allowed, but also question what and why Europe 11:34.580 --> 11:41.720 is good, not just in terms of contracts with others or economic 11:41.720 --> 11:44.280 contracts or security or something else. 11:46.040 --> 11:49.500 I think that would have been very difficult. 11:50.600 --> 11:53.680 We must not underestimate that there was this referendum and there is 11:53.680 --> 11:56.300 the principle that one does not interfere in the internal politics of 11:56.300 --> 12:01.460 another EU member state, unless it comes to extreme cases. 12:01.780 --> 12:03.440 We have such cases in Hungary and Poland. 12:03.620 --> 12:06.760 But otherwise you don't interfere for good reason. 12:07.580 --> 12:14.580 And after the referendum and its result, then one would have tried to 12:14.580 --> 12:17.060 influence a referendum afterwards. 12:18.180 --> 12:21.040 And that in a situation where one would have negotiated in parallel 12:21.040 --> 12:21.760 with the government. 12:22.880 --> 12:24.280 I think that would have been very bad. 12:27.260 --> 12:32.060 And one must not forget that the start of the negotiations was shaped 12:32.060 --> 12:34.900 by the fact that there was great uncertainty within the EU as to 12:34.900 --> 12:36.960 whether other countries would follow. 12:37.800 --> 12:47.280 And that one was completely pulled over the table by the EU. 12:47.380 --> 12:48.880 That was a real concern. 12:49.580 --> 12:53.020 And the EU would be extremely unequal and one would have to see that 12:53.020 --> 12:57.540 no one would be negotiated and that the whole thing would be 12:57.540 --> 12:58.120 completely different. 12:58.840 --> 13:00.140 That was not to be expected at all. 13:00.740 --> 13:05.040 On the contrary, the British side negotiated very unsuccessfully, 13:05.900 --> 13:07.180 showed bad lines of negotiation. 13:08.180 --> 13:11.520 I mean, they also carried out a number of negotiations in Brussels. 13:11.520 --> 13:14.660 The first thing I noticed was that the negotiations were always 13:14.660 --> 13:15.180 carried out only in Brussels. 13:16.580 --> 13:19.700 I used to negotiate in China and we always had to fly to China. 13:21.220 --> 13:24.620 But otherwise, it would have been a basic rule that there were 13:24.620 --> 13:25.940 alternating negotiating places. 13:26.580 --> 13:29.700 Tactically, they were immediately in a disadvantage if they always 13:29.700 --> 13:30.920 negotiated only at the place of the other. 13:31.720 --> 13:34.220 They are no longer immediately at the same eye level. 13:34.520 --> 13:37.020 Whether that was not possible, I can't say. 13:37.100 --> 13:41.180 But I don't think that would have been realistic. 13:42.240 --> 13:44.640 Yes, of course, you can go back a little. 13:45.180 --> 13:47.160 Did the EU do something wrong before the referendum? 13:47.880 --> 13:48.840 The EU is not perfect. 13:48.900 --> 13:49.520 We know that. 13:49.560 --> 13:50.620 There are many problems. 13:50.620 --> 13:57.620 You start projects like the euro or other things that did not grow 13:57.620 --> 14:02.700 quite as much as they originally were. 14:02.760 --> 14:03.800 Then you get it at some point. 14:04.360 --> 14:06.700 The euro has become much more stable at the moment. 14:07.900 --> 14:14.940 You may have over-regulated the division of the EU commission into 14:14.940 --> 14:16.480 these individual commissaries here and there. 14:16.480 --> 14:18.380 And everyone has to go through a legislative program. 14:19.040 --> 14:20.300 Otherwise you are not important enough. 14:20.800 --> 14:25.660 There are enough things where you could say from the EU side, okay, 14:25.880 --> 14:26.920 maybe we did something wrong here and there. 14:28.400 --> 14:31.860 The next thing was the negotiations with which the referendum should 14:31.860 --> 14:32.260 be defended. 14:32.820 --> 14:34.300 Did the EU do something wrong there? 14:34.780 --> 14:39.900 David Cameron actually wanted to come up with a new cooperation model. 14:41.360 --> 14:44.440 But of course David Cameron set the time frame extremely 14:44.440 --> 14:44.940 unsuccessfully. 14:45.420 --> 14:50.580 He wanted a secure negotiation result in six months or something. 14:50.820 --> 14:54.140 And most of his goals were to change the EU treaties. 14:55.740 --> 14:58.940 EU treaty changes are something you think about in five years. 14:59.020 --> 15:00.000 And then it would be fast. 15:00.160 --> 15:01.220 That was not feasible either. 15:02.160 --> 15:06.160 He was met here and there with things that can be done without a 15:06.160 --> 15:06.960 treaty change. 15:07.540 --> 15:12.640 He essentially wanted to bring his party together. 15:12.920 --> 15:16.440 That was it and that went spectacularly wrong, as we have just seen. 15:20.460 --> 15:25.920 In the election campaign, the will to support was there, but the 15:25.920 --> 15:30.160 Remainers all said just don't send anyone from Brussels to support. 15:30.320 --> 15:33.160 Please don't send Angela Merkel to Great Britain. 15:33.260 --> 15:34.420 It's going all the way backwards. 15:35.200 --> 15:37.500 And they didn't do anything. 15:38.120 --> 15:41.320 Jean-Claude Juncker said in retrospect that he should have run an 15:41.320 --> 15:42.580 active press policy. 15:43.460 --> 15:49.220 Whenever a new atrocity emerged, how many millions the NHS gets weekly 15:49.220 --> 15:52.420 when Great Britain is elected, he should have made clear statements 15:52.420 --> 15:52.860 against it. 15:53.560 --> 15:55.760 But in retrospect, he sees it as a mistake. 15:55.760 --> 15:56.960 That's what Juncker says. 15:57.340 --> 16:00.300 Otherwise, they have already covered the rest. 16:01.300 --> 16:02.780 That's very difficult. 16:04.120 --> 16:09.220 I would like to come back to the economic forecasts. 16:09.420 --> 16:13.520 We have seen the regulatory work that is still to be implemented. 16:14.020 --> 16:16.820 It is incredibly long and big. 16:17.620 --> 16:22.460 But we are now in this period when the regulations have to be 16:22.460 --> 16:23.160 negotiated. 16:27.420 --> 16:32.300 Depending on how things turn out, there is more security or less 16:32.300 --> 16:33.340 security for the economy. 16:33.920 --> 16:35.760 Today, there was a new number. 16:37.580 --> 16:40.380 Unfortunately, it's just a matter of passing by. 16:41.040 --> 16:43.640 Today, every few hours you hear something else. 16:44.620 --> 16:49.140 Suddenly, a part of the economy prefers Brexit. 16:51.180 --> 16:55.920 That seemed to have changed a little bit. 16:56.360 --> 17:01.640 But it could be due to the fact that a lot of damage has already 17:01.640 --> 17:06.240 occurred and that security is better than insecurity. 17:07.180 --> 17:15.000 But the number I heard today was that only 41% of the economy is 17:15.000 --> 17:16.220 against Brexit. 17:16.220 --> 17:20.360 I don't know if that really means that almost 60% is for Brexit. 17:21.300 --> 17:25.180 But maybe you can help us a little to answer this question. 17:26.520 --> 17:32.660 How do you see the economic development in the UK? 17:34.480 --> 17:41.260 We have seen with your input that the impact of the changes will be 17:41.260 --> 17:43.260 felt in many regions. 17:45.780 --> 17:50.500 But what are the immediate economic effects in the UK? 17:53.120 --> 17:54.340 Let's do the following. 17:54.480 --> 17:59.960 Let's take a look at the companies in a state like Baden-Württemberg. 18:00.140 --> 18:02.460 There are companies that do not export at all. 18:02.600 --> 18:03.680 They are set up regionally. 18:04.340 --> 18:07.900 Then there are large companies that export worldwide. 18:08.720 --> 18:13.300 They have these hidden champions with a very multi-layered structure. 18:13.980 --> 18:18.500 Similarly, you have to look at or understand the effects We have 18:18.500 --> 18:23.640 companies that are not affected at all realistically, or almost not, 18:24.080 --> 18:26.120 and others for whom it will be existential. 18:27.940 --> 18:32.060 In my opinion, there will be a significant negative effect. 18:32.360 --> 18:36.820 It depends a lot on what the final results of the negotiations will 18:36.820 --> 18:37.100 look like. 18:37.420 --> 18:40.700 I would like to briefly highlight two points. 18:41.120 --> 18:42.000 One is agriculture. 18:43.240 --> 18:47.280 Agriculture has voted in large part for Brexit. 18:47.560 --> 18:53.620 There is a statement by my colleague that says the turkeys voted for 18:53.620 --> 18:54.020 Christmas. 18:54.020 --> 18:56.220 I don't know if you know this saying. 18:56.520 --> 19:00.080 It means as much as the turkeys were enthusiastic about Christmas. 19:01.860 --> 19:04.900 For the farmers, the situation is as follows. 19:05.040 --> 19:06.760 They were under the umbrella of the EU. 19:07.740 --> 19:11.720 If Great Britain, which Boris Johnson wants, concludes a free trade 19:11.720 --> 19:18.740 agreement with the USA, the first elements of the agreement will be on 19:18.740 --> 19:20.000 the subject of agriculture. 19:20.720 --> 19:24.260 The subject of agriculture is always at the top of the free trade 19:24.260 --> 19:24.740 agreements. 19:25.380 --> 19:28.520 In free trade agreements, there are winners and losers. 19:29.760 --> 19:32.120 The winner is the one who has better production costs. 19:33.740 --> 19:38.740 If you look at the farms in the USA and at what will happen in Great 19:38.740 --> 19:45.480 Britain, many British farms will not survive this free trade 19:45.480 --> 19:45.960 agreement. 19:45.960 --> 19:49.140 They are not aware of this because they hate the bureaucracy of 19:49.140 --> 19:49.140 Brussels. 19:50.880 --> 19:51.940 German farmers also hate this. 19:52.780 --> 19:54.820 But it is always good to have something to complain about. 19:55.660 --> 20:00.940 On the other hand, Keir Starmer, the sharpest thinker of the Labour 20:00.940 --> 20:06.100 Party, said in the British Parliament that he talked to companies that 20:06.100 --> 20:07.900 are active in the field of automobiles. 20:07.900 --> 20:14.400 They said, if we have a free trade agreement, we have to prove that 20:14.400 --> 20:17.440 more than 50% of our products come from Great Britain. 20:18.340 --> 20:22.200 The automobile companies said they couldn't do that because more than 20:22.200 --> 20:26.580 50 % come from the EU and there are factories for the different 20:26.580 --> 20:27.260 components. 20:27.800 --> 20:30.600 This is a typical example of a topic that is not thought through. 20:31.280 --> 20:33.980 It will have a significant impact. 20:33.980 --> 20:37.540 The topic of just-in-time supply chains and everything that goes with 20:37.540 --> 20:37.540 it. 20:39.560 --> 20:41.020 A lot depends on us. 20:42.720 --> 20:44.080 Yes, that's right. 20:48.160 --> 20:51.600 If a situation changes, there are always economic winners. 20:51.820 --> 20:54.920 For example, the landlords of warehouses have made a great profit in 20:54.920 --> 20:58.880 March and April when everything was prepared for the first hard exit. 20:58.880 --> 21:00.520 It didn't happen. 21:01.620 --> 21:04.480 Puppet owners don't seem to be affected. 21:05.080 --> 21:09.700 But as you said, these value chain industries are extremely badly 21:09.700 --> 21:11.880 affected and some others too. 21:12.200 --> 21:15.660 But what the economy hates the most is uncertainty. 21:16.440 --> 21:19.300 And the uncertainty is still there. 21:19.420 --> 21:24.120 It would of course be eliminated if this agreement was closed, but not 21:24.120 --> 21:24.540 completely. 21:24.540 --> 21:27.000 As you said, negotiations will continue. 21:28.920 --> 21:34.440 It will take years before all uncertainties are eliminated. 21:35.240 --> 21:37.080 That's what the economy hates the most. 21:38.440 --> 21:41.720 In many other respects it will be more difficult. 21:42.200 --> 21:47.180 An economic study that the government itself created, the May 21:47.180 --> 21:54.920 government, compared the agreement that Theresa May negotiated with an 21:54.920 --> 22:00.520 option that is not unlike what is now on the table, a pure free trade 22:00.520 --> 22:04.440 agreement only for exchange of goods without regulatory adjustments, 22:05.080 --> 22:10.440 and found that over the next few years Great Britain will accumulate 7 22:10.440 --> 22:15.480 % of its gross social product, but less than it would have with 22:15.480 --> 22:19.400 further growth if that didn't happen and if Great Britain would stay 22:19.400 --> 22:19.720 in the EU. 22:20.620 --> 22:23.280 7% gross social product is quite a lot. 22:24.460 --> 22:30.600 2.8% estimates the same study Great Britain has already lost by the 22:30.600 --> 22:31.560 time it exits anyway. 22:32.260 --> 22:34.400 Simply because of the uncertainty and its effects. 22:35.160 --> 22:37.260 So the economic effects are there. 22:37.500 --> 22:40.660 The question is how small can you keep them, how big will they get? 22:41.160 --> 22:45.660 Could you also say about the regional distribution and the 22:45.660 --> 22:46.100 disadvantages? 22:48.600 --> 22:55.420 Especially in many electorates in Northern England that voted for 22:55.420 --> 22:58.700 Brexit, they will probably be the losers. 22:59.080 --> 23:03.400 For example, the First Minister of Wales has now made it very clear 23:03.400 --> 23:07.580 especially because of agriculture that they are also losing. 23:07.860 --> 23:09.300 Mr. Alter mentioned the farmers. 23:10.160 --> 23:14.300 The second example of the Truthanel who vote for Christmas are the 23:14.300 --> 23:17.040 workers of the auto industry. 23:17.820 --> 23:22.120 In almost all auto production locations in almost all electorates with 23:22.120 --> 23:25.400 few exceptions there was a large majority for Brexit. 23:26.220 --> 23:31.120 And now it happens that Nissan will not produce the car in 23:31.120 --> 23:34.660 Mansunderland and thinks about Dugganham. 23:35.000 --> 23:38.480 One location after the next is weakened by this. 23:38.480 --> 23:40.700 I showed the map earlier. 23:41.240 --> 23:44.480 Estimation of how many percent of a region depends on exports. 23:45.160 --> 23:49.820 If you put that on a map where people voted for Brexit, you will 23:49.820 --> 23:54.040 surprisingly find that in many parts of Great Britain where the 23:54.040 --> 23:57.980 effects will be the hardest, people voted for Brexit the most. 24:01.370 --> 24:03.110 A question that you also ask. 24:03.630 --> 24:05.550 With regard to this change. 24:05.870 --> 24:13.890 You now have the differences between the first deal and the new deal. 24:14.690 --> 24:22.010 One thing that will be highlighted on Saturday by the Ian Blackford of 24:22.010 --> 24:26.630 the Scottish National Party is the so-called Schatting von Schottland. 24:27.690 --> 24:36.330 Because the line will be on the sea even Northern Ireland is 24:36.330 --> 24:41.750 advantaged compared to Wales or Scotland. 24:42.190 --> 24:45.390 Could you explain what he meant? 24:45.690 --> 24:53.990 Well, Northern Ireland should legally belong to the customs area of 24:53.990 --> 24:56.830 Great Britain, but in fact it doesn't. 24:57.110 --> 25:03.790 That means that no cells will be raised, except for things that are 25:03.790 --> 25:05.310 produced and consumed on site. 25:05.590 --> 25:07.150 I'm exaggerating a bit. 25:08.470 --> 25:12.910 Regulatory, Northern Ireland is also linked to the European Union. 25:14.630 --> 25:18.130 That means, of course, that Northern Ireland is doing much better in 25:18.130 --> 25:21.890 trade with the EU than the rest of Great Britain. 25:22.150 --> 25:23.990 Of course, there are no trade barriers. 25:24.590 --> 25:26.830 That annoys the Schotts immensely. 25:26.830 --> 25:31.750 Northern Ireland voted 55-45 against Brexit, but the Schotts even 25:31.750 --> 25:35.430 voted 62-38 and that Northern Ireland is doing better now. 25:36.430 --> 25:43.010 The Schotts think they deserve it, because they voted for Brexit The 25:43.010 --> 25:44.810 English anyway, but not the Schotts. 25:45.350 --> 25:55.690 As far as I understand, one of the reasons for the Schotts' annoyance 25:55.690 --> 26:01.610 is that during their decision on the independence of Scotland, one 26:01.610 --> 26:02.970 topic played a major role. 26:02.970 --> 26:08.690 If you, the Schotts, leave the United Kingdom, then you leave the EU 26:08.690 --> 26:08.870 as well. 26:09.410 --> 26:16.910 And don't assume that you will then get out of there and be back in 26:16.910 --> 26:17.190 the EU. 26:17.190 --> 26:17.730 No, no. 26:18.170 --> 26:22.350 We will make sure that this will be a relatively long process and that 26:22.350 --> 26:23.270 it won't be that easy. 26:23.770 --> 26:27.250 I can't say exactly how many percent of the votes that influenced, but 26:27.250 --> 26:29.010 it certainly had an influence. 26:30.030 --> 26:35.930 Scotland voted against independence and now, a few years later, after 26:35.930 --> 26:40.150 staying in the United Kingdom, one is supposed to leave the European 26:40.150 --> 26:40.650 Union. 26:41.270 --> 26:45.730 And that leads to an enormous annoyance and at the same time it 26:45.730 --> 26:50.470 basically ignites the discussion about a second independence 26:50.470 --> 26:51.070 referendum. 26:52.430 --> 27:00.550 I also think that this will definitely continue, but maybe, of course, 27:00.670 --> 27:05.650 the view changes in itself, but also otherwise, that we see, we always 27:05.650 --> 27:09.730 have clear regulations according to which criteria you become a 27:09.730 --> 27:13.050 member, in the EU or somewhere else. 27:13.050 --> 27:20.730 But we don't have an exit regulation, neither for some people, but not 27:20.730 --> 27:24.330 really for those who don't meet the criteria anymore. 27:25.030 --> 27:31.330 So it might be easier to exclude someone, I don't know exactly, but 27:31.330 --> 27:35.270 for a voluntary exclusion, I mean, we see it a lot with many other 27:35.270 --> 27:41.650 questions, and we have the general discussion, which will certainly 27:41.650 --> 27:48.510 come back in terms of a new architecture for Europe, i .e. 27:49.790 --> 27:52.590 federalism, deepening, all these debates. 27:53.270 --> 27:54.570 Would you like to say something about that? 27:55.270 --> 27:59.430 Yes, well, there is this article 50, that is the only mechanism you 27:59.430 --> 28:01.110 know, it has not been tried before. 28:01.910 --> 28:05.630 I don't think you want to think about it very sharply and for a long 28:05.630 --> 28:08.170 time, how do we actually do it, if it happens. 28:08.170 --> 28:11.990 Although I also have to say, I don't think any other exit would be as 28:11.990 --> 28:14.150 complex as the one in Great Britain, because of Northern Ireland. 28:16.730 --> 28:20.790 What the EU has always offered and what the British wishes will not 28:20.790 --> 28:26.230 fulfill, the EU has said, you can choose any model and then we screw 28:26.230 --> 28:28.870 around here and there a bit, do you want to do it like Norway, you are 28:28.870 --> 28:32.750 in the European economic area, you have your own fishery, but you just 28:32.750 --> 28:37.390 replace the regulations, or do you want it like Turkey, you are not in 28:37.390 --> 28:40.590 the economic area, but you are in the customs union, do you want the 28:40.590 --> 28:44.670 Swiss model, that is complex, but not so far away from the Norwegian 28:44.670 --> 28:47.650 model, or do you just want to get out of everything, you can do 28:47.650 --> 28:51.630 whatever you want and I think that would have worked with most other 28:51.630 --> 28:56.890 member states, but not because of Northern Ireland, not with Great 28:56.890 --> 29:00.250 Britain, that is the point, I think. 29:03.810 --> 29:07.910 Otherwise, I think, I can only agree with your point that the 29:07.910 --> 29:14.130 regulations are rather very spartan, the model of Europe simply did 29:14.130 --> 29:18.550 not foresee that someone would leave such a great model, that was 29:18.550 --> 29:25.010 probably somehow ridiculous and it reminds of a certain déjà vu, if 29:25.010 --> 29:30.450 you think back to the euro crisis around Greece, in the euro area 29:30.450 --> 29:35.270 there is also no, as far as I know, no organized mechanism to exclude 29:35.270 --> 29:40.010 a country voluntarily or sometimes even not voluntarily and that is, 29:40.150 --> 29:43.810 in my opinion, also basically a structural error. 29:45.650 --> 29:52.370 I think I would leave it at that for now and now we invite you to ask 29:52.370 --> 29:55.830 a question, to leave a comment, to give your opinion. 30:52.670 --> 30:56.070 You are, of course, right that we are now in a very critical 30:56.070 --> 30:57.090 situation. 30:58.350 --> 31:05.190 The topic of Brexit has developed from a gigantic economic legal 31:06.310 --> 31:14.890 project to a situation that raises the question of division of power 31:14.890 --> 31:20.390 in Great Britain in the foreground, which at first hardly anyone would 31:20.390 --> 31:20.730 have expected. 31:21.570 --> 31:25.850 So far, of course, this is a very fundamental development that we 31:25.850 --> 31:26.130 have. 31:26.810 --> 31:30.610 But we can hardly influence it from a European-German point of view. 31:31.570 --> 31:35.750 There are, as we are in other parts of the world, good reasons not to 31:35.750 --> 31:39.910 necessarily interfere in other countries, so much so that sometimes it 31:39.910 --> 31:40.270 would be close. 31:42.030 --> 31:43.790 Will there be a hard Brexit? 31:44.190 --> 31:47.310 Three or four weeks ago, I would have said, I think it will come. 31:47.430 --> 31:49.050 Boris Johnson will somehow make it. 31:49.570 --> 31:54.550 Fortunately, the courts in Scotland and then the British Supreme Court 31:55.130 --> 31:56.530 have made corresponding decisions. 31:57.330 --> 32:03.230 I don't think there will be a hard Brexit at the moment, because, for 32:03.230 --> 32:10.610 me, completely surprisingly, Boris Johnson managed to make things very 32:10.610 --> 32:11.990 difficult to get approval. 32:12.370 --> 32:14.810 Then you make it very complicated so that no one understands it 32:14.810 --> 32:14.810 anymore. 32:14.990 --> 32:16.950 And then someone says, yes, that's something completely different, and 32:16.950 --> 32:17.550 then we agree now. 32:17.990 --> 32:19.570 And by now you also have such an impression. 32:19.770 --> 32:21.910 No, that's not a backstop anymore, that's something completely 32:21.910 --> 32:22.350 different. 32:23.370 --> 32:24.170 Yes, okay. 32:24.830 --> 32:29.770 And now he has a solution in which he can basically give this to his 32:29.770 --> 32:30.690 party. 32:32.190 --> 32:35.330 He conveys to them what they want. 32:35.450 --> 32:36.510 They believe it too. 32:36.810 --> 32:38.050 Okay, faith replaces mountains. 32:38.850 --> 32:42.450 And he can report the economic effects up to a certain point. 32:43.490 --> 32:48.530 So from my point of view, at the moment there is no real, there is no 32:48.530 --> 32:54.690 real net advantage, I would call it for him, not to bring the deal 32:55.850 --> 32:57.490 across the line . 32:57.490 --> 33:00.790 But it will be a question of when it will come to elections. 33:01.410 --> 33:02.610 How will the elections turn out? 33:02.910 --> 33:06.530 That would probably be the most important next milestone that I would 33:06.530 --> 33:06.770 see. 33:10.990 --> 33:12.170 I don't need that at all. 33:12.530 --> 33:12.930 Exactly, yes. 33:14.470 --> 33:17.130 I don't have much to add to that. 33:17.410 --> 33:22.270 I have to say, a year ago, it was very difficult for me to convince 33:22.270 --> 33:24.730 people that a tough exit is a realistic option. 33:24.970 --> 33:30.570 And now I would almost stop and say, no, this is not obviously what is 33:30.570 --> 33:30.890 happening. 33:31.110 --> 33:33.290 There is still a good chance. 33:33.610 --> 33:36.830 We don't know how big it is that this deal will be said goodbye like 33:36.830 --> 33:36.830 that. 33:38.310 --> 33:40.250 Let's continue to the audience. 33:43.690 --> 33:49.910 So another question, in terms of hard Brexit or not, or no deal, what 33:49.910 --> 33:56.250 is currently being discussed is, of course, based on the variety of 33:56.250 --> 33:59.470 things that still need to be regulated, whether it can be regulated 33:59.470 --> 34:06.530 until the end of 2020, which is probably unlikely, and whether then 34:06.930 --> 34:14.610 such a no deal or a practical no deal will come out of it. 34:14.770 --> 34:21.730 And I think that this is also one of the questions that is being in 34:21.730 --> 34:23.470 the Parliament this week, 34:26.510 --> 34:33.710 whether this is not a bit of a trap from Boris Johnson, because he 34:33.710 --> 34:41.070 knows that until this transition time it will not be regulated and 34:41.070 --> 34:44.870 that a de facto no deal will come out of it. 34:44.870 --> 34:47.250 Boris Johnson is not a Brexiteer at all. 34:47.410 --> 34:52.830 So he always sat on the fence and deserved it for decades that he 34:52.830 --> 35:00.050 wrote bad columns against Brussels and then this and then that doesn't 35:00.050 --> 35:00.310 matter to him. 35:00.830 --> 35:02.630 He is shielding his power. 35:03.250 --> 35:06.230 If he gets through the deal through the Parliament, it may be that he 35:06.230 --> 35:09.250 loses interest, but I don't see that he is the kind of person who then 35:09.250 --> 35:13.650 says and my secret plan was always a tough exit, now I'll see how I 35:13.650 --> 35:13.790 can do it. 35:14.670 --> 35:15.590 I don't think so. 35:15.970 --> 35:17.210 The dynamics are there. 35:17.710 --> 35:22.510 If he gets through the Parliament and the European Parliament, then 35:22.510 --> 35:24.530 they will try to implement it. 35:25.050 --> 35:29.850 I have already said that 2020 is unrealistic and so you might think 35:29.850 --> 35:32.690 that a tough exit will inevitably come. 35:33.450 --> 35:39.950 But you can extend the transition phase by up to two years and I 35:39.950 --> 35:41.770 assume that exactly that will happen. 36:24.990 --> 36:29.670 My colleagues in Great Britain with whom I am in intensive contact 36:29.670 --> 36:33.490 were 90 to 95 percent remain. 36:33.770 --> 36:36.790 I know exactly two who were for Brexit. 36:37.350 --> 36:38.630 They are all worried. 36:39.450 --> 36:43.290 There are two areas that are really endangered. 36:43.490 --> 36:45.730 One is research and cooperation. 36:46.310 --> 36:49.250 The other is, as I said, Erasmus. 36:49.450 --> 36:55.090 So specifically at the Great Britain Centre we have students who go to 36:55.090 --> 37:00.210 Great Britain All those who apply for their internship in Great 37:00.210 --> 37:04.170 Britain before October 31st get funding and get a visa for Erasmus. 37:04.550 --> 37:07.610 Those who arrive at the internship on November 1st or later do not 37:07.610 --> 37:07.790 have it. 37:08.230 --> 37:11.830 So that's how specific it is from my own professional field. 37:12.890 --> 37:19.750 For research cooperation it is also a small disaster. 37:21.010 --> 37:24.590 The British were extremely good at applying for research projects in 37:24.590 --> 37:30.450 the European Research Council and also international projects and the 37:30.450 --> 37:33.270 Germans and the British scientists worked very closely together. 37:33.930 --> 37:37.770 And you can't just replace it by the British saying, well, let's take 37:37.770 --> 37:41.830 the money we paid and give it to our research councils. 37:42.770 --> 37:45.690 You can't make a joint application anymore. 37:46.230 --> 37:49.390 If you make an application at the Research Council, you have a chance 37:49.390 --> 37:54.150 of a quarter that it is accepted, both on the British side and at the 37:54.150 --> 37:55.350 European Research Council. 37:55.470 --> 38:00.290 If you apply for a joint project on both sides, the statistical chance 38:00.290 --> 38:01.290 is 1 to 64. 38:01.510 --> 38:03.870 I think most people will have better things to do. 38:04.530 --> 38:08.090 That means it is already the case that the British no longer get along 38:08.090 --> 38:12.970 with these projects because you don't even know what's going on. 38:15.430 --> 38:18.570 The British universities are concerned whether they will continue to 38:18.570 --> 38:20.810 get students from all these countries. 38:20.950 --> 38:22.210 We are very concerned about our exchanges. 38:25.690 --> 38:28.410 There is nothing positive about it at all. 38:28.430 --> 38:31.430 I have already said that the scientists who are now in Great Britain 38:31.430 --> 38:32.690 have to pay money to the Research Council. 38:34.030 --> 38:36.710 We don't know if they will still be paid on November 1st. 38:37.210 --> 38:39.350 We don't know all this yet. 38:41.670 --> 38:45.270 All these uncertainties add up to the fact that the judgment of 38:45.270 --> 38:46.730 science is almost unanimous. 38:47.270 --> 38:49.430 Nothing good can come out of it and a lot of bad things. 39:43.940 --> 39:47.640 Great Britain has a constitution, but it is not codified. 39:47.960 --> 39:52.240 There are three countries on this earth, the other two are New Zealand 39:52.240 --> 39:52.860 and Israel. 39:55.580 --> 39:58.620 The British constitution is a very political one. 39:58.760 --> 40:00.900 There are a number of rules and laws. 40:01.060 --> 40:03.600 I also mentioned the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011. 40:05.480 --> 40:09.200 But the highest British constitutional principle is that Parliament is 40:09.200 --> 40:09.700 supreme. 40:10.860 --> 40:15.660 The two houses together can make any law they want. 40:15.760 --> 40:17.520 There are no constitutional barriers. 40:17.900 --> 40:21.860 Of course, there are areas that are not so clear, but we have followed 40:21.860 --> 40:21.880 it. 40:22.180 --> 40:24.740 There are courts that apply the existing law. 40:25.480 --> 40:30.040 The first to say, for example, no, you can't make the amendment to 40:30.040 --> 40:33.080 Article 50 without the Parliament having voted in advance. 40:33.900 --> 40:36.140 Boris Johnson sent the Parliament on forced leave. 40:37.180 --> 40:39.020 The Supreme Court said it was not possible. 40:39.920 --> 40:46.260 We are still suing whether Boris Johnson did everything he could to 40:46.260 --> 40:47.700 actually extend the amendment. 40:49.260 --> 40:51.520 But we also see that the discussion is new. 40:52.060 --> 40:56.680 The question is, does this model work, that the actual barriers of the 40:56.680 --> 41:01.440 constitution are political and not legal like ours with a two-thirds 41:01.440 --> 41:04.800 majority change and a strong federal constitutional court? 41:04.980 --> 41:06.480 This discussion is being reset. 41:06.480 --> 41:09.160 In the process, we have also seen that there are weaknesses. 41:10.940 --> 41:15.120 I think that the calls for a codification of the British constitution 41:15.120 --> 41:17.560 will increase a little after these experiences. 41:19.620 --> 41:22.160 I have to comment. 41:22.560 --> 41:25.980 I think the lady with the spin has become a little known. 41:26.520 --> 41:27.820 Yes, Brenda Hale. 41:27.980 --> 41:34.780 She is a heroine for me, also as the first female chairman of the 41:34.780 --> 41:35.560 Supreme Court. 41:36.240 --> 41:37.040 Brenda Hale. 41:38.180 --> 41:41.680 I think she is a very, very smart woman. 41:42.200 --> 41:44.460 She started in science, may I add. 42:40.740 --> 42:43.580 This hope is also very justified. 42:43.800 --> 42:48.180 But what we see, and we have to realize that this is not the first 42:48.180 --> 42:55.440 time in history that very complex political developments have taken 42:55.440 --> 42:55.440 place. 42:55.640 --> 43:03.060 And we also have to realize that very different motives are 43:03.060 --> 43:05.560 concentrated here in an unfavorable way. 43:06.340 --> 43:06.920 We have heard that. 43:07.280 --> 43:11.140 We have the Scots, who would like to be somehow independent. 43:11.740 --> 43:15.520 The North Irish want to go to Ireland, some do not. 43:16.020 --> 43:18.880 The English want to join the EU, some do not. 43:18.880 --> 43:21.400 Boris Johnson wants to become Prime Minister. 43:22.000 --> 43:27.400 He managed to get Theresa May out of office, and so on and so forth. 43:28.040 --> 43:31.280 Unfortunately, in a certain sense, there are people who have gone 43:31.280 --> 43:32.800 here. 43:33.100 --> 43:40.560 And apart from that, I have learned that in the end we can be happy if 43:40.560 --> 43:42.460 we live in a world based on rules. 43:43.540 --> 43:46.800 And it has to come down to the fact that the rules are implemented and 43:46.800 --> 43:47.300 adhered to. 43:47.500 --> 43:53.480 And what this judge did in a fascinating way she argued very sharply 43:54.500 --> 43:59.540 that this parliament has the task of enacting laws and exercising 43:59.540 --> 44:00.720 control over the government. 44:01.600 --> 44:05.400 And this right was withdrawn from the parliament, and thus it is 44:05.400 --> 44:06.860 unlawful, it is unconstitutional. 44:07.600 --> 44:10.560 So far, she has done exactly what her task was. 44:10.660 --> 44:16.520 And I believe that if everyone at his place in this framework did his 44:16.520 --> 44:23.580 job properly and ethically with ethical responsibility, then we would 44:23.580 --> 44:24.820 not have a whole series of problems. 44:25.400 --> 44:27.340 I can only express my greatest respect to the lady. 45:06.890 --> 45:08.790 No one said it was mandatory. 45:09.550 --> 45:12.350 But there is a not insignificant danger. 45:12.750 --> 45:17.650 And the danger begins with a small, I would say, a small border post 45:17.650 --> 45:23.030 with a cupboard and a video camera, which one would probably need if 45:23.030 --> 45:26.990 one had to monitor a border because of customs differences, because of 45:26.990 --> 45:31.510 agricultural products, because this cupboard would not be there for a 45:31.510 --> 45:31.650 long time. 45:32.430 --> 45:34.830 Or this camera would not work for a long time. 45:35.510 --> 45:38.630 And then the British state would have to consider whether to accept 45:38.630 --> 45:40.130 that this cupboard is no longer there. 45:40.550 --> 45:43.310 And it would escalate further. 45:44.050 --> 45:45.450 The graves are deep. 45:45.690 --> 45:46.530 They are very, very deep. 45:46.730 --> 45:48.350 Many people have lost their lives. 45:48.950 --> 45:54.390 Everyone knows someone from the acquaintance, the relatives who 45:54.390 --> 45:55.470 suffered from this conflict. 45:58.070 --> 46:03.330 The economic development has brought a lot through the K-Friday 46:03.330 --> 46:03.790 Agreement. 46:04.270 --> 46:07.230 Especially the border regions, which were extremely poor, are now 46:07.230 --> 46:09.670 working very, very well together in the agricultural sector. 46:10.250 --> 46:15.670 And as soon as it gets more difficult and as soon as there is a state 46:15.670 --> 46:21.450 presence at this border, it can definitely happen. 46:22.090 --> 46:26.070 I would not say that it has to be like that, but the danger is great. 46:27.570 --> 46:33.070 I also think that one point that certainly comes up is how the two, so 46:33.070 --> 46:37.350 practically Northern Ireland and the Republic, develop after Brexit. 46:38.730 --> 46:45.450 I mean, at the end of the 1960s, when it started, it was partly 46:45.450 --> 46:51.010 because of the different economic situations, but also the different 46:51.010 --> 46:57.270 ways in which better jobs and so on were distributed, according to 46:57.270 --> 46:58.370 religion and so on. 46:58.770 --> 47:00.050 And that is not forgotten. 47:00.930 --> 47:07.170 And this is often politicized again without the facts having to be 47:07.170 --> 47:07.190 correct. 47:08.330 --> 47:13.130 So I think that together with the barrier there is a very great 47:13.130 --> 47:13.690 potential. 47:14.290 --> 47:17.130 So I think that will definitely exist. 47:17.330 --> 47:18.590 I look at the round. 47:18.690 --> 47:20.330 There is so much that could still be discussed. 47:20.730 --> 47:25.070 We haven't discussed it in detail, but maybe we'll do it very quickly 47:25.070 --> 47:29.190 as a recap, as a final round. 47:29.190 --> 47:29.290 Thank you very much. 47:30.250 --> 47:34.210 You also showed it so beautifully in your slides. 47:35.390 --> 47:40.210 Germany will of course get a lot of disadvantages from this. 47:42.830 --> 47:47.490 I also think, of course, in view of the debates that we will have, the 47:47.490 --> 47:54.510 new distribution or the new payers for the EU budget. 47:54.590 --> 48:02.130 Can you tell us something about this so that we can imagine what new 48:02.130 --> 48:06.690 debates will arise in the EU when the UK will also leave as a major 48:06.690 --> 48:07.170 payer? 48:08.910 --> 48:11.750 Yes, Great Britain was a net payer. 48:12.350 --> 48:13.890 They paid more than they took out. 48:13.950 --> 48:14.530 That's gone. 48:14.870 --> 48:17.930 But I think the budget agreements are already running over the next 48:17.930 --> 48:19.810 several years. 48:21.930 --> 48:27.670 And the income will increase a bit at this point, and the expenses 48:27.670 --> 48:28.150 will increase a bit at another point. 48:29.030 --> 48:31.010 So that's doable. 48:31.230 --> 48:32.430 It's not unbridgeable. 48:32.990 --> 48:35.310 And the new budget was set for 2021 anyway. 48:37.870 --> 48:38.970 Weights are being shifted. 48:39.190 --> 48:45.350 Great Britain has always been someone with a very strong presence, a 48:45.350 --> 48:48.890 seat in the Security Council, a pretty well-functioning military, 48:49.150 --> 48:54.510 which was used internationally, a pretty well-functioning – whether 48:54.510 --> 49:00.090 you like it or not – but very efficient security services, and also 49:00.090 --> 49:03.830 somehow more and more a promoter of free market economy compared to 49:03.830 --> 49:04.990 other countries. 49:07.130 --> 49:09.930 And the weights are being shifted in the European Union. 49:10.110 --> 49:11.950 That's a consequence. 49:15.630 --> 49:19.990 In addition to the financial issue, which of course leads to any kind 49:19.990 --> 49:28.230 of discussion, the axis Berlin-Paris is perhaps partly unintentionally 49:28.230 --> 49:29.030 strengthened in this way. 49:29.330 --> 49:33.130 From a German point of view, we have the phenomenon that you don't 49:33.130 --> 49:36.950 want to push yourself so much into the foreground, but almost nothing 49:36.950 --> 49:37.650 else is left at the moment. 49:38.650 --> 49:44.310 And what is not entirely unproblematic is that, due to the expected 49:44.310 --> 49:49.910 exit of Great Britain, the weight is shifting more towards the 49:49.910 --> 49:50.530 southern countries. 49:50.910 --> 49:55.230 And you just have to say that there are some different perspectives on 49:55.230 --> 49:59.670 the topic of economic policy, saving rates and similar things, or 49:59.670 --> 50:00.310 household solidity. 50:01.350 --> 50:03.370 And that's not necessarily desirable. 50:03.870 --> 50:07.010 I mean, I think many of us sitting here would welcome it if the topic 50:07.010 --> 50:09.770 of negative interest would finally be over and we would enter into 50:09.770 --> 50:10.770 another discussion. 50:12.730 --> 50:17.070 And that is rather not to be expected due to this shift in weight. 50:20.630 --> 50:21.390 Thank you very much. 50:21.930 --> 50:26.250 And I think the forecasts of how things will turn out this week are 50:26.250 --> 50:28.150 speculative and will remain speculative. 50:28.830 --> 50:35.930 I think we will continue to watch and maybe some of us will have the 50:35.930 --> 50:41.870 many hours on Saturday with Phoenix or with BBC World to follow the 50:41.870 --> 50:42.330 debate. 50:43.570 --> 50:50.050 And if you classify it, that it was the fourth time that we sat down 50:50.050 --> 50:56.330 on Saturday, 1939 with the outbreak of the Second World War, then 1956 50:56.330 --> 51:04.210 with the Suez Canal, then, now my memory, 1976 with the Falkland, no, 51:04.470 --> 51:09.210 it was 1986, Falkland Creek and now Brexit. 51:09.730 --> 51:13.590 So you can ask what symbolism that has. 51:13.970 --> 51:20.770 But maybe let's just let our thoughts wander for now and take a closer 51:20.770 --> 51:22.870 look at what will be discussed this week. 51:22.910 --> 51:27.910 And we are curious, especially what Mr. Bercow is doing in his last 51:27.910 --> 51:34.970 days, because on 31 October, as many have noticed, Bercow, as Speaker 51:34.970 --> 51:41.550 of the House, has definitely said on 31 October, with or without, or 51:41.550 --> 51:43.150 whatever, he goes. 51:43.570 --> 51:47.550 I think many of us will miss him. 51:47.930 --> 51:54.490 He was a very smart man too, how he really did that. 51:54.850 --> 52:00.770 Now I would like to thank my speakers very, very much and we are 52:00.770 --> 52:04.030 following and have now, I think, also with your discussion. 52:05.290 --> 52:11.350 Above all, what we can really take away is that we are really not 52:11.350 --> 52:15.730 talking about what will happen until 31 October. 52:15.730 --> 52:16.770 That's just the beginning. 52:17.690 --> 52:22.270 I think that is very important as one message and the other is that it 52:22.270 --> 52:24.390 is a long and complex path. 52:24.850 --> 52:30.090 We think of the objective complexities and of the dynamic complexities 52:30.090 --> 52:33.130 and in many, many areas. 52:33.650 --> 52:39.230 I don't remember how many you have counted, Mr. Dannemann, but in any 52:39.230 --> 52:40.830 case it is a long way. 52:41.110 --> 52:42.050 We stay tuned. 52:42.350 --> 52:45.130 Thank you very much for your interest and have a nice evening.